407 E Fayette Ave · Patoka, IL 62875

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2018 0.50 ac lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $149k · 6% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE ADJUSTMENT!!! We just cut the price on this beauty by 10K, and it is now a can't miss deal. 3bed/2bath 1 year warranty on roof 2 car detached garage large patio very clean!!!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Patoka CUSD 100 (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #765 of 919 in IL (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Patoka Elem School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,371 of 2,056 statewide, top 68%, 114 students, 0% FRL); Patoka Jr High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 48 students, 0% FRL); Patoka Sr High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 71 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $121,650 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 E Fayette St	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+12%)	7mo	$48,000	$29	68
206 E Claude Ave	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,556 (+4%)	21mo	$100,000	$64	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $65,065
• Equity at exit: $115,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $190,950
• Equity at exit: $239,728

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62875

• Home prices YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,320/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $135,621

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $15	+0% $-25	+5% $-64	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-73	+0% $-25	+5% $23	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $11	base $-25	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $140,000 Pending 109 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-03-26
   price $140,000 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   PRICE ADJUSTMENT!!! We just cut the price on this beauty by 10K, and it is now a can't miss deal. 3bed/2bath 1 year warranty on roof 2 car detached garage large patio very clean!!!

5. 2026-02-11
   listed $150,000 Active 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   PRICE ADJUSTMENT!!! We just cut the price on this beauty by 10K, and it is now a can't miss deal. 3bed/2bath 1 year warranty on roof 2 car detached garage large patio very clean!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$429/yr (+$36/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,320
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$641
• After-tax cash flow: $344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patoka CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1730870
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,283
• Composite: 17.22/100
• National rank: #14167
• State rank: #765 of 919 in IL

Livability — Patoka

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #12390

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patoka, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,091

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.98%
• Current HPI: 162.2619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+27.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,320 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.