3847 Main St · Warrensburg, NY 12885

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,856 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1873 0.72 ac lot $50/sqft · 49% below area Est $480k · 49% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

History and charm mix with versatile use at this oversized historic Victorian style home. This property is located in the heart of the quaint town of Warrensburg just north of Lake George in the Adirondacks mountains of New York State. Originally built by Miles Thomas, a local merchant, there may be potential for state restoration funding. Currently used as two apartment on first floor with vacant second story that could be office space or converted to more apartments. Road frontage on two streets, with a large parking area and public utilities make this ideal for mixed use as retail, apartments, office or bring your own vision! High traffic count for both local and tourists headed to vaca

Key facts

• Mixed use as retail
• Vacant second story
• Public utilities

Tags

• HISTORIC VICTORIAN STYLE HOME
• TWO APARTMENT ON FIRST FLOOR
• VACANT SECOND STORY
• LARGE PARKING AREA
• PUBLIC UTILITIES
• MIXED USE AS RETAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.72 acres with road frontage and sloped terrain

Exterior

• Parking: 16 off-street paved parking spaces accessed via driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electric: Other
• Home design: Triplex; Multiple stories (multi-level units)
• Construction: Plaster, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior materials; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Wrap-around covered front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 2 bedrooms; Unit 2: 1 bedroom; Unit 3: 2–3 bedrooms (records list both 2 and 3 for Unit 3)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; Full bath on 1st level; Full bath on 2nd level; Each unit includes a full bath (Unit 1: 1, Unit 2: 1, Unit 3: 1)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Electric heating; Other heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in features; Crown molding; Bilco doors and exterior basement entry; Wood-framed windows; Fireplace in the family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrensburg Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 361 students, 58% FRL); Warrensburg Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 302 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1873 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $237,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1873 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,336
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -48.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $152,337
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $433,771
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12885

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,156/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $366	+0% $297	+5% $227	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $199	+0% $297	+5% $394	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $359	base $297	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $169

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,464
Total (2 units)			$2,464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $245,000 Active 746-char remark
17. 2026-04-01
    historical
18. 2025-07-18
    price $254,900
19. 2025-06-05
    price $284,900
20. 2025-05-31
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,648 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,156
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $3,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629910
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,828
• Composite: 41.15/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #552 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,531

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.30%
• Current HPI: 368.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $245,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $254,900 Global MLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $284,900 Global MLS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $275,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,156 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.