311 South St · Lockport, NY 14094

$169,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1860 6,534 sqft lot Est $201k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will want to get this lovely colonial on your list! Beautifully maintained home with a well-manicured yard. Warm and comfortable as you enter this spacious home. Many rooms with original wide plank flooring. Bright and airy. The Kitchen is a place where friends can meet. Warm and inviting with nice mix of modern and style. 1st floor family room can also be a bedroom. Dining room is ready for all your holiday meals. Convenient 1st floor laundry. Inside has been freshly painted in neutral colors. 2nd floor with practical 1/2 bath. Recent upgrades include gutters-2015, A/C-2020, HWT-2020, Windows-2019, Furnace-2008. Roof was a tear off (lower roof-2019, upper roof-2008). If you love a plush yard featuring mature landscaping this yard will not disappoint. Attached potting shed/workshop. Delayed negotiations to begin 8/1/22 at 5pm.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Full bath
• First floor bedroom

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULL BATH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT IN COUNTRY KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Composite siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.15 acres, 33 x 202); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Sunroom/Florida room/bonus room; Bedroom on main level; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($21/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $166,225 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,982
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Erie St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,528 (-2%)	3mo	$180,000	$118	89
20 Morton Ave	0.42mi	4/1.5	1,578 (+1%)	3mo	$205,000	$130	76
8 Blackley Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+6%)	2mo	$135,000	$81	70
99 Elmwood Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (-12%)	3mo	$159,900	$116	64
756 Walnut St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,564 (+0%)	4mo	$235,000	$150	60
69 Morrow Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,510 (-3%)	1mo	$195,000	$129	59
603 Walnut St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$131	56
314 Locust St	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,448 (-7%)	1mo	$221,000	$153	54
80 Spalding St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-14%)	1mo	$147,500	$110	53
20 Park Lane Cir	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	4mo	$199,900	$119	52
62 Grand St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,505 (-3%)	4mo	$45,000	$30	50
65 Morrow Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-9%)	1mo	$230,000	$162	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,182
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,517
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,196/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,660

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $50	+0% $2	+5% $-46	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-64	+0% $2	+5% $67	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $45	base $2	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,196 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,196 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$4,196
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (MLS) $142,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-07-23 Listed $135,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+48.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,196 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.