3018 S 9th St · Deming, NM 88030

$59,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 910 sqft · Other · 64 Days on market

Built 1970 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in the perfect neighborhood for settling down and relaxing. With the built on porch being a perfect area to have your morning coffee. The built on tool shed gives you plenty of storage space. If you like to travel there is even a space to park an rv. Come enjoy this home and all that it has to offer. Buyer should get there own measurements for lot size and square footage.

Key facts

• Space to park an rv
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• SPACE TO PARK AN RV

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#73 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities D+, schools F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,930 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.28%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $22,418
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $60,747
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,500 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,500 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,500 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,500 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,500 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,500 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,500 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $59,500 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This home is in the perfect neighborhood for settling down and relaxing. With the built on porch being a perfect area to have your morning coffee. The built on tool shed gives you plenty of storage space. If you like to travel there is even a space to park an rv. Come enjoy this home and all that it has to offer. Buyer should get there own measurements for lot size and square footage.

19. 2025-07-31
    soldstatus
20. 2020-08-14
    soldstatus 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Charming home, ready to move-in. Located in Deming City limits in Luna County. A 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath Manufactured home that has been well maintained. Property includes Fridge, Stove, Microwave, Washer, Dryer, Kitchen Table, Bed, and other items in home. Come enjoy the great year-round Weather, High desert climate, with Amazing Sky Viewing, and the most beautiful sunsets. 55+ age restricted community with HOA. There is easy access to Las Cruces, El Paso, Silver City, Lordsburg, Tucson through I-10 and Palomas Mexico.

21. 2020-08-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Charming home, ready to move-in. Located in Deming City limits in Luna County. A 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath Manufactured home that has been well maintained. Property includes Fridge, Stove, Microwave, Washer, Dryer, Kitchen Table, Bed, and other items in home. Come enjoy the great year-round Weather, High desert climate, with Amazing Sky Viewing, and the most beautiful sunsets. 55+ age restricted community with HOA. There is easy access to Las Cruces, El Paso, Silver City, Lordsburg, Tucson through I-10 and Palomas Mexico.

22. 2020-01-16
    listed $35,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Charming home, ready to move-in. Located in Deming City limits in Luna County. A 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath Manufactured home that has been well maintained. Property includes Fridge, Stove, Microwave, Washer, Dryer, Kitchen Table, Bed, and other items in home. Come enjoy the great year-round Weather, High desert climate, with Amazing Sky Viewing, and the most beautiful sunsets. 55+ age restricted community with HOA. There is easy access to Las Cruces, El Paso, Silver City, Lordsburg, Tucson through I-10 and Palomas Mexico.

23. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus
24. 2016-11-14
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $186 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 155.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $5,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $4,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Deming

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #15165

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deming, NM
• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $59,500 NMMLS
• 2025-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-14 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-01-16 Listed $35,000 NMMLS
• 2017-04-20 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2016-11-14 Listed $35,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $186 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.