5860 Cantrell Rd · Patterson, GA 31557

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2022 1.00 ac lot $140/sqft · 41% below area Est $287k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the countryside of Pierce County, this 2022 mobile home offers a peaceful setting with quiet dirt roads and a relaxed rural feel. Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features a clean, modern interior with a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The backyard is fully enclosed with a privacy fence-ideal for enjoying your own private outdoor space. A 1-bay shop with a concrete floor adds extra versatility, perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop setup. If you're looking for a newer home with land and a calm, country atmosphere, this one is worth a look.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single family manufactured house); One level
• Construction: Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Level lot; Composition roof; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Mud room laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#110 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson Elementary School (math 71% / reading 50%, grade B-, #123 of 1,228 statewide, top 10%, 476 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,695 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,000
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -40.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $83,404
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $252,596
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31557

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $849/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $144,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-94	+0% $-142	+5% $-190	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-187	+0% $-142	+5% $-98	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-99	base $-142	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $169,900 New 639-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,563 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$60/mo · 84.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$849
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $-555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Patterson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #8413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,717

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.95%
• Current HPI: 289.3963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $169,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+26.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $849 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.