13923 Swaps Dr #219 · Jacksonville, FL 32250

$33,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a swimming pool, a picnic area / pavilion / grill, and a soccer field, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Soccer field
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• PICNIC AREA
• SOCCER FIELD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $33,100

Exterior

• Home design: Spec inventory new construction, Plan 93485; Condominium at 13923 Swaps Dr #219, Jacksonville FL 32250

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 63.5% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $232 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,592 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 204.40%
• DSCR: 10.09
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13757 Chauny Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	12mo	$137,000	$101	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.79×
• Total profit: $101,493
• Equity at exit: $5,010

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.58×
• Total profit: $240,645
• Equity at exit: $2,905

Cash invested: $9,408 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32250

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,602

Break-even live

Break-even rent $294

Max offer price $33,600

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,400
• Closing costs: $1,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14089 Lumberton Falls Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,450	$1.66	23d	1	0.24mi
2942 Rockford Falls Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	17d	1	0.29mi
13717 Otway Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,500	$2.37	7d	1	0.41mi
14051 Beach Blvd Jacksonville Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,410	$2.41	1d	17	0.43mi
13793 Herons Landing Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,850	$1.37	23d	1	0.56mi
2443 Footbridge Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,000	$2.07	4d	1	0.61mi
13364 Beach Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1418	$2,000	$1.41	14d	5	1.01mi
13364 Beach Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1418	$1,997	$1.41	3d	6	1.01mi
3477 Nightscape Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1078	$1,750	$1.62	23d	1	1.14mi
3435 Nightscape Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1078	$1,800	$1.67	23d	1	1.16mi
3551 San Pablo Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	800	$1,399	$1.75	3d	11	1.18mi
3684 Summerlin Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,600	$1.44	23d	1	1.20mi
2001 Hodges Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,776	$1.78	20d	15	1.21mi
3504 Summerlin Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,475	$1.33	23d	1	1.24mi
13700 Richmond Park Dr N #1002 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,396	$1.38	21d	1	1.33mi
13700 Richmond Park Dr N #1002 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,396	$1.38	14d	1	1.33mi
3709 San Pablo Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,890	$2.36	2d	14	1.38mi
13703 Richmond Park Dr N Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,900	$2.20	10d	4	1.47mi
13703 Richmond Park Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1122	$1,900	$1.69	2d	3	1.47mi
13715 Richmond Park Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,545	$1.32	14d	1	1.48mi
13727 Richmond Park Dr N #105 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,600 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $33,600 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,600 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $33,600 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $33,600 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $33,600 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $33,100 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,882
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − Depreciation: −$977
• Taxable income: $19,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,771
• After-tax cash flow: $14,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,072
• Household income: $117,724
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -581.25%
• Current HPI: 329.7742
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B