The Ellison II Plan · Villa Rica, GA 30180

$239,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 414 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room
• Owner's suite

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH COUNTER SPACE
• OPTIONAL ISLAND
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $239,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,071.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#224 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carroll County (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 174 in GA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ithica Elementary (math 66% / reading 52%, grade B-, #138 of 1,228 statewide, top 11%, 778 students, 49% FRL); Bay Springs Middle School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 930 students, 57% FRL); Villa Rica High School (math 16% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 424 statewide, top 43%, 1,807 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 789 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $197,714 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,071
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -25.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
371 Oakhaven Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+11%)	8mo	$280,000	$132	63
200 Augusta Woods Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,793 (-6%)	16mo	$288,000	$161	59
681 Nine Oaks Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,113 (+10%)	13mo	$330,000	$156	58
1010 Nandina Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,793 (-6%)	4mo	$285,000	$159	55
808 Hickory Level Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (-3%)	10mo	$275,000	$149	53
116 Southside Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-12%)	13mo	$292,500	$174	51
211 Augusta Woods Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,150 (+12%)	10mo	$319,000	$148	49
527 Firethorn Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,692 (-12%)	11mo	$299,900	$177	44
744 Great Oak Pl	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+10%)	13mo	$350,000	$167	44
744 Great Oak Pl #14	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+10%)	13mo	$350,000	$167	44
530 Firethorn Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-9%)	16mo	$309,000	$177	42
510 Firethorn Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (-14%)	16mo	$312,000	$190	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-94,984
• Equity at exit: $47,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-141,116
• Equity at exit: $27,760

Cash invested: $89,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,000 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30180

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 789
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,684
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,816/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,809

Max offer price $226,015

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-546	+0% $-657	+5% $-768	+10% $-879
Rent	-10% $-813	-5% $-735	+0% $-657	+5% $-579	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-495	-0.5pp $-575	base $-657	+0.5pp $-740	+1.0pp $-825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,268
• Closing costs: $9,632
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
246 Augusta Woods Dr Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,970	$1.35	1d	1	0.44mi
211 Cypress Ln Villa Rica, GA	2.0	2.5	1404	$2,050	$1.46	3d	6	0.54mi
902 Hickory Level Rd Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,150	$1.75	73d	1	0.62mi
125 Azalea Dr Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.0	1879	$1,795	$0.96	38d	1	0.74mi
125 Azalea Dr Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.0	1879	$1,795	$0.96	30d	1	0.74mi
347 Augusta Woods Dr Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,845	$1.02	93d	1	0.74mi
303 Augusta Woods Dr Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1793	$1,895	$1.06	30d	1	0.74mi
334 Augusta Woods Dr Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.5	2410	$2,085	$0.87	93d	1	0.80mi
24 Azalea Dr Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	93d	1	0.92mi
191 Commerce Dr Villa Rica, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,491	$2.34	2d	37	0.92mi
835 N Bay Overlook Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.5	2502	$2,350	$0.94	12d	1	1.06mi
731 Parker St Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,765	$1.20	10d	1	1.08mi
730 Parker St Villa Rica, GA	3.0	1.5	1474	$1,385	$0.94	37d	1	1.12mi
408 Erin Ct Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1772	$1,495	$0.84	93d	1	1.18mi
406 Erin Ct Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1508	$1,699	$1.13	52d	1	1.19mi
124 S Winds Dr Villa Rica, GA	3.0	3.0	1604	$1,950	$1.22	33d	1	1.23mi
709 Williamsburg Ct Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1967	$2,080	$1.06	20d	1	1.28mi
221 Raleigh Way Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	2027	$2,081	$1.03	93d	1	1.28mi
138 Alton Cir Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,550	$1.02	54d	1	1.31mi
221 Alton Cir Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,525	$0.96	54d	1	1.35mi
1012 Sapphire St Villa Rica, GA	2.0	1.0	1284	$1,445	$1.13	32d	1	1.37mi
170 Alton Cir Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.5	1796	$1,820	$1.01	60d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,900 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 409 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 406 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 405 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 404 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $239,900 Active 403 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,900 Active 401 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 399 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 398 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 396 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,900 Active 395 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 393 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 392 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 391 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 390 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 389 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 388 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 387 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 386 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 385 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 384 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 382 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 381 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 380 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 379 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 378 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 377 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 376 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 375 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 374 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 373 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 372 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,900 Active 371 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 369 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 367 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 366 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 363 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,900 Active 362 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 361 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 360 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 358 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 354 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 353 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 352 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 349 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 348 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,985
• − Property taxes: −$4,816
• − Insurance: −$1,605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$9,340
• Taxable loss: −$13,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,316
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home with an excellent condition score is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily enhanced with minor updates to boost its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ithica Elementary B- GA #138/1,228 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Bay Springs Middle School D- GA #126/470 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Villa Rica High School F GA #181/424 Nat'l #12,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 1300840
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,692
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4888
• State rank: #38 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Villa Rica

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #13182

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Villa Rica, GA
• County: Carroll County · 123,370 people
• City population: 43,013
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,013
• Household income: $88,514
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,370 people
• By 2030: 127,186 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 133,534 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 137,612 · +11.5%
• By 2075: 142,892 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 136,294 · +10.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: German 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.1% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.97%
• Current HPI: 321.1874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-21 Listed $259,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-18 Listed $259,900 Zillow