428 1/2 N Carolina St · Houston, TX 77029

$59,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1971 3,001 sqft lot $133/sqft · 41% below area Est $102k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime location for this 30' x 100' lot being sold for lot value only. New construction homes throughout neighborhood. Currently a mobile home is on the lot and a tear down. Perfect opportunity for a new construction project in a desirable transitioning neighborhood close to Downtown Houston.

Key facts

• Prime location
• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,554 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.75%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,160
• List price: $59,950
• Delta: -41.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $74,297
• Equity at exit: $54,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 12.08×
• Total profit: $186,032
• Equity at exit: $116,470

Cash invested: $16,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $476

Max offer price $59,950

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,988
• Closing costs: $1,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,950 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,950 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,950 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,950 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,950 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,950 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,950 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,950 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,950 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,950 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,950 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,950 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,950 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,950 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    listed $59,950 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Prime location for this 30' x 100' lot being sold for lot value only. New construction homes throughout neighborhood. Currently a mobile home is on the lot and a tear down. Perfect opportunity for a new construction project in a desirable transitioning neighborhood close to Downtown Houston.

16. 2026-01-31
    historical
17. 2025-08-11
    listed $59,950 Active
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 149.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,358
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,744
• Taxable income: $7,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $6,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $59,950 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $59,950 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +36.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.