5015 E Ustick Rd #172 · Caldwell, ID 83605

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $86k · 16% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring new interior paint, new carpet, new windows, updated flooring, trim, light fixtures, and new bathroom fixtures throughout. The bright kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows into a comfortable living area. Enjoy the covered front patio for relaxing mornings or evenings. The property also includes a storage shed and an insulated shed with power and heater, perfect for a workshop, office, or hobby space. Move-in ready with versatile bonus space. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking affordable living. Close to shopping, restaurants, and other amenities. Monthly lot rent is $495. Buyer and Buyers

Key facts

• Remodeled
• New carpet
• Covered front patio

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on rented lot; Built in 1972
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Partial wood fencing; Metal roof; Irrigation available with manual sprinkler system; Cul-de-sac lot; Property located in a mobile home park

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range (freestanding); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms — all on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main level; Kitchen island; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Caldwell District (suburban): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #90 of 92 in ID (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 12% / reading 16%, grade F, #355 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 508 students, 91% FRL); Canyon Springs High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #167 of 169 statewide, top 100%, 208 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 72% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Caldwell District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.43%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,932
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5015 E Ustick Rd #181	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	0mo	$85,000	$92	95
5015 E Ustick Rd #111	0.00mi	3/1.0	924 (0%)	14mo	$104,000	$113	84
5015 E Ustick #164	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	14mo	$96,500	$104	83
5015 E Ustick Rd #143	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	17mo	$94,000	$102	77
107 Lancelot Ct	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	937 (+1%)	2mo	$80,000	$85	76
200 Friar Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	5mo	$85,000	$92	76
5016 E Ustick Rd #16	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	918 (-1%)	7mo	$85,000	$93	69
5015 E Ustick Rd #154	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,024 (+11%)	22mo	$95,000	$93	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $29,800
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $83,532
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83605

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $224/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4209 Saylor Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,925	$1.85	21d	1	0.84mi
4901 Maid Jessica St Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	14d	1	0.85mi
5218 Guitar Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	920	$1,422	$1.55	2d	6	1.01mi
3304 S Florida Ave Caldwell, ID	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	1.24mi
6903 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,550	$1.57	14d	1	1.25mi
6921 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	21d	1	1.30mi
401 Canyon Village Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1161	$2,758	$2.38	3d	31	1.30mi
209 Abraham Way Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	23d	1	1.35mi
7012 Noah Dr Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	940	$1,550	$1.65	21d	1	1.37mi
10890 Blue River Ln Nampa, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	832	$1,696	$2.04	3d	8	1.41mi
4612 Lexington Sky Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	985	$1,445	$1.47	2d	1	1.42mi
5012 Hamlet Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	998	$1,550	$1.55	2d	2	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   price $99,500
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $102,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $224 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $687 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 206.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$224
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $7,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $6,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caldwell District
• NCES district ID: 1600510
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,116
• Composite: 19.85/100
• National rank: #8694
• State rank: #90 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 76,816
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 41,325
• Household income: $68,427
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.47%
• Current HPI: 366.7896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $99,500 IMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $102,900 IMLS

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.