1815 Sweetwater #1 · La Presa, CA 91977

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1979 Average condition 435 sqft lot Est $198k · 10% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Agents GO SHOW!!! Nestled in one of the area’s most beautifully maintained 55+ communities, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space & easy living nestled in the foothills of the valley. Affordable space rent just one of the many plusses!!! From the moment you arrive, you’ll feel the well-kept surroundings and amenities and community activities that make Terrace Estates so special. Inside you’ll find a thoughtfully designed floor plan featuring a spacious primary suite, generously sized secondary bedroom & two full bathrooms, walk in shower included, so ideal for both everyday living and hosting guests! The open, airy layout creates a warm

Key facts

• Oversized porch
• Low maintenance yard
• Community amenities

Tags

• OVERSIZED PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Land lease of $950 monthly
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park name: Terrace Estates; Community features include curbs, street lighting, sidewalks, mountainous/foothill setting, suburban character

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Park amenities and pool within walking distance
• Utilities: Has view
• Home design: Faces east; Single-story; Mobile home remains (30 ft x 40 ft)
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Estimated living area
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Community pool; Yard; Corner lot; Level/flat lot; Close to clubhouse; Near public transit; Street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main floor; All bedrooms located on the same level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry is up 3 stairs; Main floor primary bedroom; Primary suite; All bedrooms on ground level; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (individual room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.0% in La Presa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#571 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 158 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.09%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1815 Sweetwater Rd #169	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,058 (-12%)	0mo	$210,000	$198	77
1815 Sweetwater Rd #28	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,222 (+2%)	21mo	$185,000	$151	76
1815 Sweetwater Rd #167	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,122 (-6%)	19mo	$185,000	$165	70
1815 Sweetwater Rd #155	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-12%)	4mo	$269,000	$256	68
1815 Sweetwater Rd #22	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	8mo	$275,000	$205	63
2515 Sweetwater Rd Spc 23	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	1mo	$185,000	$148	57
1815 Sweet Water #135	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,041 (-13%)	18mo	$120,000	$115	54
2515 Sweetwater Rd #81	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,022 (-15%)	14mo	$160,000	$157	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,632
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $79,553
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91977

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1392 Helix St Unit Helix 1394 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	10d	1	0.35mi
1624 Canyon Rd Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,355	$2.94	1d	4	0.51mi
9211 Amys St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	805	$1,745	$2.17	1d	1	0.70mi
8926 Delrose Ave Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	739	$1,895	$2.56	1d	1	0.73mi
8926 Delrose Ave Unit 8914-24 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	739	$1,895	$2.56	1d	1	0.73mi
1071 Osage Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1054	$3,495	$3.32	1d	1	0.75mi
8836 Valencia St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$3,500	$4.21	1d	1	0.88mi
937 Felicita Ave Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	16d	1	0.89mi
1916 Skyline Dr Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,400	$3.20	1d	1	0.91mi
911 Concepcion Ave Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1250	$3,300	$2.64	11d	1	0.96mi
2705 Dennis Ln Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$4,400	$3.60	1d	1	0.99mi
2369 Ravenwood Dr Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1461	$3,950	$2.70	2d	1	1.06mi
8953 Lamar St #8951 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	1d	1	1.06mi
840 Grand Ave Unit 4 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,950	$2.23	1d	1	1.09mi
8881 Lamar St Unit 02 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	22d	1	1.09mi
8881 Lamar St Apt 3 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	1d	1	1.09mi
8881 Lamar St Apt 7 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	10d	1	1.09mi
8145 Dodie St #47 San Diego, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,400	$3.43	24d	1	1.10mi
832 Grand Ave Unit 832-D Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,975	$2.30	1d	1	1.10mi
9144 Rosedale Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,300	$2.74	22d	1	1.10mi
8075 Palm St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,750	$3.06	10d	1	1.12mi
567 Encinitas Ave San Diego, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$2,800	$3.43	24d	1	1.12mi
8619 Sandy Bev Ln Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	812	$2,795	$3.44	1d	1	1.15mi
8355 Golden Ave Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,999	$2.89	1d	1	1.26mi
3038 Washington St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,700	$3.86	1d	1	1.28mi
1225 Capistrano Ave Unit B Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	22d	1	1.34mi
3375 Par Dr La Mesa, CA	2.0	2.0	1229	$4,200	$3.42	1d	1	1.41mi
3405 Fairway Dr La Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,950	$3.28	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $179,000
15. 2026-04-05
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $9,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,226
• After-tax cash flow: $9,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming manufactured home in a well-maintained community offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation, with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be replaced
• Minor HVAC units — standard units

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC units · standard units	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Mesa-Spring Valley
• NCES district ID: 0620250
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,742
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6442
• State rank: #478 of 1400 in CA

Livability — La Presa

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #18714

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Presa, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 62,957
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,064
• Household income: $99,657
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2007.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -697.99%
• Current HPI: 381.66
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $199,000 CRMLS