186 Goldcrest Cir · Butler, PA 17325

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2016 $440/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 186 Goldcrest Circle! This beautiful, move-in-ready home offers convenient one-level living within the Goldenville Estates 55+ community. The home features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, highlighted by an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, a family room with a cozy fireplace, and a separate dining area. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and countertop space, complemented by a large primary suite with an ensuite bath. Outside, you can enjoy morning coffee or host gatherings on the oversized deck. The property is ideally located just minutes from shopping, restaurants, and historic downtown Gettysburg. The $440 monthly lot fee includes: water, sewer, trash

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2016
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as excellent; Property manager present; Not in a federal flood zone
• HOA & community: HOA fee $440 per month; HOA includes water, sewer, and snow removal; Property is in a senior community (55+)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Private/community water; On-site septic
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (main-level living)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above grade and below grade structures noted; Built year from assessor (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Level entry to main level

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Carpet flooring in living areas; Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#705 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Upper Adams SD (rural): math 33% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #298 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Biglerville Hs (math 62% / reading 24%, grade F, #215 of 437 statewide, top 50%, 529 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,553 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-45,470
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-61,936
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17325

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,976/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $119,553

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-237	+0% $-286	+5% $-334	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-350	+0% $-286	+5% $-221	+10% $-157
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-242	base $-286	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 782-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $170,000 Active 782-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   historical $170,000 782-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,976
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$6,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Adams SD
• NCES district ID: 4224300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $56,964
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #4482
• State rank: #298 of 539 in PA

Livability — Butler

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #6951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Adams County · 30,373 people
• City population: 39,234
• Metro: Gettysburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,373
• Household income: $80,948
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 447.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,494 people
• By 2030: 101,890 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 98,417 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 92,014 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 76,128 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 58,931 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.7% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.49%
• Current HPI: 282.6594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gettysburg, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $170,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,976 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.