11315 16th St · Coyne Center, IL 61264

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1962 $121/sqft · 7% above area Est $118k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 2-bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage with new roof and large yard *** This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative for owner occupants through 02/02/2026 *** Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition ***

Key facts

• Large yard
• New roof
• Garage

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sherrard CUSD 200 (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #240 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Rock Island County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rock Island County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,101
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -11.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,232
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $19,285
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61264

• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $104,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $104,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    price $104,900 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Lovely 2-bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage with new roof and large yard *** This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative for owner occupants through 02/02/2026 *** Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition ***

14. 2026-03-23
    price $109,900 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Lovely 2-bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage with new roof and large yard *** This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative for owner occupants through 02/02/2026 *** Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition ***

15. 2026-03-03
    price $114,900 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Lovely 2-bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage with new roof and large yard *** This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative for owner occupants through 02/02/2026 *** Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition ***

16. 2026-01-09
    listed $119,900 Active 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Lovely 2-bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage with new roof and large yard *** This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative for owner occupants through 02/02/2026 *** Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition ***

17. 2002-11-21
    soldstatus $73,000
18. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus $73,000
19. 2002-10-25
    soldstatus $92,500
20. 2002-09-09
    listed $79,900
21. 1997-11-12
    soldstatus $51,000
22. 1997-11-12
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $1,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $2,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherrard CUSD 200
• NCES district ID: 1736180
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $60,194
• Composite: 26.77/100
• National rank: #7129
• State rank: #240 of 620 in IL

Livability — Coyne Center

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coyne Center, IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,056

Population outlook (Rock Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 140,982 people
• By 2030: 137,705 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 130,512 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 123,841 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 109,851 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 90,922 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: English 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rock Island

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.6) · D 53.9% · R 44.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.6 2020: D+12.1 2016: D+8.4 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.95%
• Current HPI: 160.4359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+105.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $104,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $109,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $114,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $119,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-20 Sold (MLS) $73,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2002-09-09 Listed $79,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,605 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.