408 Tivoli Park Dr · Four Corners, FL 33897

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1985 6,499 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This furnished 2bed/2bath ranch has been updated with very nice carpet and Pergo flooring throughout. The eat-in kitchen has nice appliances and a water filtering system at the kitchen sink, a separate dining room with built-in display cabinets for yourchina, a carpeted Florida room with surround windows, a carpeted screened porch, and a separate computer room. Nicely landscaped. Great floor plan. Great home. MOTIVATED SELLER.

Key facts

• 2 clubhouses
• Open plan layout
• 2 pools

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• VINYL ROOM
• STORAGE WORKSHOP
• OPEN PLAN LAYOUT
• 2 POOLS
• 2 CLUBHOUSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $70; total annual fees $840; Association fee includes pool and recreational facilities
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly $70 / $210 quarterly); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, shuffleboard, recreation facilities, storage; fence restrictions; golf and golf course access; golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband / high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; West facing; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Fleetwood Harrington model
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Rain gutters; Irrigation equipment; Level, paved lot in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Florida room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $139 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $169k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.54%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,660
• Equity at exit: $43,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,786
• Equity at exit: $48,971

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	0.19mi
511 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$1,700	$0.94	14d	1	0.22mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	14d	1	0.23mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	0.28mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	0.30mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	0.30mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	23d	1	0.31mi
130 Orlando Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,097	$2.05	14d	21	0.32mi
1000 Western Breeze CIR Unit 3-410 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,360	$1.99	3d	1	0.34mi
1623 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,950	$1.34	3d	1	0.38mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	23d	1	0.38mi
722 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1811	$1,550	$0.86	23d	1	0.40mi
1000 Western Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,448	$1.81	14d	83	0.40mi
406 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,525	$0.86	14d	1	0.41mi
218 Langford Park Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,100	$1.42	23d	1	0.53mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	23d	1	0.64mi
1000 Ketner St Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,746	$1.65	3d	22	0.74mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,970	$1.67	3d	15	0.77mi
629 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	23d	1	0.83mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	0.86mi
1009 Lake Davenport Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,199	$1.35	14d	1	0.89mi
130 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,890	$2.09	2d	19	0.98mi
145 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1029	$1,850	$1.80	2d	22	1.11mi
17345 Cagan Crossings Blvd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,195	$1.73	12d	1	1.23mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	23d	1	1.23mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,822	$1.75	3d	35	1.24mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	23d	1	1.26mi
136 Grantham Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1799	$1,995	$1.11	3d	1	1.26mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	1.28mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	23d	1	1.28mi
1560 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1528	$2,100	$1.37	23d	1	1.38mi
206 Scaton Way Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1530	$1,750	$1.14	13d	1	1.38mi
1301 Tuscan Hills Blvd Unit 9406 1 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	23d	1	1.39mi
774 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	988	$1,750	$1.77	23d	1	1.39mi
17177 Cagan Crossings Blvd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,500	$1.69	24d	1	1.40mi
807 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1076	$1,450	$1.35	23d	1	1.42mi
1536 Mirabella Cir Unit 1536 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1567	$2,100	$1.34	23d	1	1.44mi
1556 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,950	$1.42	3d	1	1.44mi
1513 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1594	$1,950	$1.22	23d	1	1.46mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,800	$1.14	3d	2	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 691-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $4,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+102.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-26 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-06 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,182 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.