820 Rogers Ave · Columbia, MS 39429

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1920 0.42 ac lot Est $161k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rich with classic Southern charm, this inviting home offers warm character, a welcoming front porch, and a comfortable, flowing layout. Tucked into a quiet Columbia neighborhood, it provides a relaxed setting with convenient access to local shops, dining, and everyday essentials. A timeless feel with easy, livable appeal.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Convenient access
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#154 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Columbia School District (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 130 in MS (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,650
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 Church St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,775 (-1%)	16mo	$30,000	$17	73
1011 Chickasaw Trl	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-5%)	18mo	$178,000	$105	44
936 Main St	0.71mi	3/1.5	2,045 (+15%)	2mo	$183,500	$90	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,007
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $30,420
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39429

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $373	+0% $340	+5% $308	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $287	+0% $340	+5% $393	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $369	base $340	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $115,000
3. 2026-03-11
   price $125,000
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2025-04-01
   status Active
6. 2025-01-01
   status Active
7. 2024-10-22
   listed $7,250 Active
8. 2024-06-11
   status Active
9. 2024-06-11
   price $7,250
10. 2024-03-11
    listed $9,500 Active
11. 2022-02-13
    listed $13,500
12. 2003-07-22
    soldstatus
13. 2003-01-06
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$561
• After-tax cash flow: $3,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 2801170
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,192
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5866
• State rank: #45 of 130 in MS

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #15293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MS
• Population (ZIP): 16,583

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,813 people
• By 2030: 21,301 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 18,176 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 15,215 · -33.3%
• By 2075: 9,388 · -58.8%
• By 2100: 5,335 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 34% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.6) · D 28.7% · R 70.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -41.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.11%
• Current HPI: 132.3278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $115,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $125,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-24 Listed $130,000 MLSU
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-01-01 Relisted — HAAR
• 2024-10-22 Listed $7,250 HAAR
• 2024-06-11 Relisted — HAAR
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $7,250 HAAR
• 2024-03-11 Listed $9,500 HAAR
• 2022-02-13 Listed $13,500 HAAR
• 2003-07-22 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2003-01-06 Listed $54,900 HAAR

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $862 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.