7821 Gilchrist Springs Dr · Ruskin, FL 34219

$379,420

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,168 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 5,330 sqft lot $12/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Community pool
• Sports courts

Tags

• ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOME
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• SPORTS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,532; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Home River Group HOA (required); Monthly HOA fee approximately $12.50 (annual $150); Community amenities: pool, fitness center, playground, basketball court, pickleball courts, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x19) with driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-30); Faces east
• Construction: New construction; Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Meritage Homes (Model: Yellowstone)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sidewalk; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-832/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $304,565 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-74,870
• Equity at exit: $56,573

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-105,558
• Equity at exit: $32,805

Cash invested: $106,238 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,787/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,133

Max offer price $367,165

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,855
• Closing costs: $11,383
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13089 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2471	$2,650	$1.07	23d	1	0.82mi
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	15d	1	0.87mi
12930 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,679	$1.09	21d	1	1.10mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	23d	1	1.15mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	1.30mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	10d	1	1.35mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	10d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $379,420 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,420 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,420 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,420 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,420 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $379,420 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,420 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,420 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-23
   price $379,420 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

10. 2026-05-19
    listed $379,420 Active
11. 2026-05-02
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

12. 2026-05-02
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

13. 2026-04-29
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

14. 2026-04-29
    price $394,420 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

15. 2026-04-27
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $399,420 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

17. 2026-04-23
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

18. 2025-10-24
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

19. 2025-10-22
    listed $391,990 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Yellowstone floorplan features a spacious open-concept design with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a first-floor primary suite, while the upstairs loft offers the perfect space to unwind or entertain.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,253
• − Property taxes: −$3,787
• − Insurance: −$1,897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,924
• − Management: −$2,924
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$11,038
• Taxable loss: −$7,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $379,420 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $379,420 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $394,420 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $399,420 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $391,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+613.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,787 · +613.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.