121 E Oak Shadows · Onalaska, TX 77360

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2003 7,360 sqft lot $69/sqft · 10% below area Est $127k · 10% under $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience the charm of small-town living just minutes from Lake Livingston. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable setting with access to the outdoor recreation that makes the area so popular. Whether you enjoy boating, fishing, or simply spending time outdoors, you'll love the convenience of nearby community amenities and the relaxed lifestyle Onalaska is known for. Inside, a spacious and light-filled living room creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private ensuite bath, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a det

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Recreational area
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• LAKE LIVINGSTON ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• RECREATIONAL AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Kickapoo Forest association with $40 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Detached carport; 1 covered garage/carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2003; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; 2003 construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Second bedroom on the first floor (14 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Block foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $95 of equity ($795 loan paydown + $-700 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $115k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.28%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,367
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 1.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Magnolia Rdg Unit DD	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	8mo	$130,000	$80	72
345 E Oak Shadows	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	8mo	$120,000	$83	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $43,451
• Equity at exit: $29,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $113,900
• Equity at exit: $33,329

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,685/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $818	+0% $786	+5% $753	+10% $720
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $707	+0% $786	+5% $865	+10% $944
Rate	-1.0pp $844	-0.5pp $815	base $786	+0.5pp $756	+1.0pp $725

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
947 Yaupon Cove Dr Onalaska, TX	4.0	2.0	1170	$2,000	$1.71	12d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 206 DOM
17. 2025-11-08
    price $129,900 583-char remark
18. 2025-11-05
    listed $149,900 Active 583-char remark
19. 2025-10-31
    historical
20. 2025-06-13
    price $149,900
21. 2025-04-30
    listed $154,900 Active
22. 2025-04-22
    historical
23. 2024-10-23
    listed $154,900 Active
24. 2024-08-14
    historical
25. 2024-05-07
    price $170,000
26. 2024-03-18
    price $185,000
27. 2024-02-14
    listed $198,000 Active
28. 2023-07-06
    soldstatus
29. 1998-09-24
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,685 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,685
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $7,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+35.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,685 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.