10577 N Umber Ter · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$279,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · Land · 125 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND-NEW 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in Citrus Springs offering more space and functionality than most homes in this price range. Situated on a generous 0.26-acre lot, this home features an open-concept layout with 9’4” ceilings, creating a bright and spacious living environment. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertainment, complete with a central island, ample cabinetry, and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat, featuring a freestanding tub, separate tiled shower, and a well-designed layout for privacy. A key advantage of this property is the 3 full bathrooms, offering flexibility for families, guests, or home office n

Key facts

• New construction
• Spacious lot
• Brick driveway

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• BRICK DRIVEWAY
• UNDERGROUND POWER CONNECTION
• COVERED LANAI
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.26 acres (90 x 125); Total living area reported as 1,771 (owner) with building area 2,349 (builder); Lot acreage: 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: No HOA/association listed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built recently (new construction)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access (public maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $280k implies a 1300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,036 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-67,371
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,930
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $229,813

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-249	+0% $-346	+5% $-443	+10% $-540
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-426	+0% $-346	+5% $-267	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-275	base $-346	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1924 W Roseboro Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	0.37mi
1150 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.60mi
11112 N Easter Ter Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	23d	1	0.70mi
11128 N Easter Ter Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	23d	1	0.71mi
10990 N Adler Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,100	$1.15	23d	1	0.73mi
10872 N Frantz Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	23d	1	0.82mi
9995 N Sandree Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	0.83mi
9676 N Jourden Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.97mi
2315 W Striblin Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,050	$0.94	23d	1	1.01mi
9475 N Camel Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	23d	1	1.09mi
2186 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,950	$1.35	23d	1	1.09mi
9298 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	23d	1	1.29mi
2799 W Sheila Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	23d	1	1.29mi
316 W Wason St Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,200	$1.11	23d	1	1.32mi
2955 W Pintado Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,095	$1.02	23d	1	1.43mi
9779 N Langdon Rd Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	2274	$2,200	$0.97	23d	1	1.43mi
2963 W Sheila Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	1952	$1,850	$0.95	23d	1	1.45mi
11127 N Trigger Ter Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   price $279,900
3. 2026-01-10
   listed $283,500 Active
4. 2025-11-27
   historical
5. 2025-11-23
   status Active
6. 2025-11-20
   historical
7. 2025-08-31
   price $292,000
8. 2025-08-15
   price $298,500
9. 2025-07-22
   price $301,500
10. 2025-06-23
    listed $309,900 Active
11. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$9,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1299.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listed $283,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $292,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $298,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $301,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $290 · +105.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.