15 Melanie Cir · Bella Vista, AR 72714

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 0.28 ac lot Est $335k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level home with workshop in crawlspace under the house. Relatively level yard with a large partially covered deck. Split floor plan. Eat in Kitchen area and dining area. Large open floor plan. Master bedroom has a sitting area that is currently used as an office space. Located close to Metfield Clubhouse, Metfield Pool, Dogwood Golf Course and Mountain Biking Trails. Bella Vista living at its finest. (Roof, HVAC and Hot Water heater all 2-3 years old approximately. )

Key facts

• Flat usable yard
• Covered porch
• Greenway access

Tags

• GREENWAY ACCESS
• FLAT USABLE YARD
• WOODED VIEWS
• COVERED PORCH
• DECK
• 200 SQFT WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $40; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, golf, dock, playground, recreation area, sauna, trails/paths, shopping, biking, near fire station, near schools, park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic available (septic tank); Electricity available; Propane available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Entry on main level
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation; Built with brick and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio/deck; Deck; Patio; City lot; Landscaped; Level lot; Near park; Wooded; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Programmable thermostat; Split bedroom floor plan; Storage; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Workshop; Double-pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Bella Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#111 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $258k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $232,909 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Melanie Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+10%)	1mo	$405,000	$236	70
8 Slaggford Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-2%)	4mo	$385,000	$252	68
8 Rettendon Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	0mo	$285,000	$197	68
17 Ettington Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-4%)	0mo	$335,000	$222	68
22 Dillow Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+2%)	6mo	$340,000	$214	66
127 Rillington Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-7%)	6mo	$285,000	$196	65
35 Witherby Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+6%)	0mo	$360,000	$217	59
1 Lynn Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-2%)	5mo	$315,000	$206	56
12 Sunderland Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-8%)	7mo	$301,000	$208	56
23 Harrington Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-6%)	5mo	$295,470	$202	53
7 Ettington Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,775 (+14%)	2mo	$385,000	$217	51
23 Sunderland Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+14%)	2mo	$345,000	$193	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,707
• Equity at exit: $122,930

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $44,961
• Equity at exit: $168,805

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72714

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $291,730

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-177	+0% $-273	+5% $-369	+10% $-466
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-365	+0% $-273	+5% $-181	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-187	base $-273	+0.5pp $-361	+1.0pp $-451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Lunsford Ln Unit 1241312P Bella Vista, AR	2.0	2.0	1119	$1,842	$1.65	14d	1	0.28mi
12 Sunderland Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,700	$1.03	24d	1	0.53mi
34 Witherby Dr Bella Vista, AR	4.0	3.0	2225	$2,295	$1.03	24d	1	0.76mi
10 Granshire Dr Unit 1237423P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1840	$3,703	$2.01	14d	1	0.85mi
8442 E McNelly Rd Unit 1335207P Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1991	$8,464	$4.25	21d	1	0.90mi
15 Mills Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,950	$1.06	14d	1	0.91mi
4 Sibsey Cir Unit 1230868P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1765	$3,469	$1.97	21d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $340,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 681-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $340,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,236
• − Management: −$2,236
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$9,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bella Vista

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #11129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bella Vista, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 31,638
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 14,350
• Household income: $103,125
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 61.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 307.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+146.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $340,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $258,500 Public Records
• 2020-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (MLS) $195,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-11-06 Listed $190,000 NWARMLS
• 2005-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.