464 Stone Placa · Pattison, TX 77423

$294,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,759 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful new construction by Cyrene Homes in La Segarra! This single-story home features an attached 2-car garage, 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, a utility room, neutral paint, a formal dining area, and a spacious living room. The kitchen showcases recessed lighting, a breakfast bar, granite countertops, and a subway tile backsplash—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite offers an en-suite bath with dual sinks and a separate shower for added comfort.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Community has curbs; Association: Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Faces west; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Cyrene Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Corner lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 13); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (11 x 10, 11 x 10, 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($277/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,160 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,287
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,412
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $887/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,312

Max offer price $294,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $107	+0% $23	+5% $-60	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-69	+0% $23	+5% $116	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $98	base $23	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,990 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $294,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,512/yr (+$376/mo · 508.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$887
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $1,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $294,990 HARMLS