125 Barcelona · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 233 Days on market

Built 2023 $127/sqft · 14% below area Est $265k · 14% under $4/mo HOA ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Shaker cabinets
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SHAKER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $182,419 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,249
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20252 Leisureland Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,800 (0%)	7mo	$289,000	$161	79
111 Lindy Lee Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-5%)	8mo	$339,000	$199	75
109 Janice Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,844 (+2%)	10mo	$359,900	$195	72
109 Cortez St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-14%)	1mo	$288,000	$185	62
113 Janice Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+5%)	19mo	$325,000	$171	59
104 Janice Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (+4%)	22mo	$289,000	$155	59
110 Red Oak Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-10%)	1mo	$225,000	$139	55
177 Armada Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-14%)	14mo	$299,000	$193	50
110 N Merlin Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,715 (-5%)	16mo	$825,000	$481	45
129 Peninsula Point Ter	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-10%)	16mo	$775,000	$476	43
172 Seminole Loop	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,848 (+3%)	13mo	$315,000	$170	41
156 King Arthur Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,632 (-9%)	11mo	$474,900	$291	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-51,688
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,477
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $207,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-66	+0% $-145	+5% $-225	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-218	+0% $-145	+5% $-73	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-87	base $-145	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	45d	1	0.36mi
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $229,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $229,000 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

8. 2026-05-03
   price $240,000 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

9. 2026-04-24
   status Active 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

10. 2026-03-22
    historical Active Contingent 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

11. 2025-10-13
    listed $249,999 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    NEW PRICE!! Beautiful home minutes away from Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of lightning throughout. Once you step inside you will find an open floor plan with plenty of space for entertaining with family and friends. The kitchen boasts shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, a dishwasher, disposal, electric range and an island where you can enjoy prepping your meals. Master bedroom features a huge walk-in closet that will not disappoint, his and her sink with a walk in shower. Come out and make this house your new HOME! The HOA offers lake access to enjoy anytime.

12. 2025-09-09
    historical $2,100
13. 2025-09-07
    historical
14. 2025-05-26
    listed $2,100
15. 2025-04-25
    price $266,000
16. 2025-02-18
    price $268,000
17. 2024-09-19
    listed $269,000 Active
18. 2024-08-24
    historical
19. 2024-07-18
    price $285,000
20. 2024-06-19
    listed $290,000 Active
21. 2024-06-15
    historical
22. 2024-05-03
    price $290,000
23. 2024-02-21
    price $295,000
24. 2023-12-19
    listed $298,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payne Springs, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $249,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Rental Removed $2,100 NTREIS
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-26 Listed for Rent $2,100 NTREIS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $266,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $268,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-19 Listed $298,000 NTREIS