604 Oregon Ave · South Bend, WA 98586

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured · 67 Days on market

Built 1979 Poor condition 0.37 ac lot $49/sqft · 58% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This corner lot offers a great location with a block from Highway 101. It features a 1979 manufactured home that needs some repairs. The lot is level and provides excellent access to the highway and all utilities. It’s an ideal site for a new building.

Key facts

• Level lot
• Excellent access
• All utilities

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LEVEL LOT
• EXCELLENT ACCESS
• ALL UTILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#191 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• South Bend School District (town): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #199 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.46%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,187
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -58.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 California Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+1%)	2mo	$340,000	$182	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $17,946
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $57,671
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98586

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $4,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This corner lot offers a great location with a block from Highway 101. However, the 1979 manufactured home needs extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior, roof, interior, HVAC, and landscaping. These repairs and improvements will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is damaged and peeling.
• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.
• Major interior walls/paint — The overall condition suggests the interior walls and paint may be in poor shape.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The overall condition suggests the HVAC and mechanical systems may be in poor shape.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — The landscaping and curb appeal are not visible in the photos, but the overall condition suggests they may be in poor shape.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Repairing and replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace roof — Repairing and replacing the roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both paint interior walls and replace paint — Painting the interior walls and replacing the paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace HVAC/mechanicals — Repairing and replacing the HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the home's functionality and increase its value.
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — Landscape and improving the curb appeal will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The exterior siding is damaged and peeling.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The overall condition suggests the interior walls and paint may be in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The overall condition suggests the HVAC and mechanical systems may be in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · The landscaping and curb appeal are not visible in the photos, but the overall condition suggests they may be in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Repairing and replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — Repairing and replacing the roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both paint interior walls and replace paint — Painting the interior walls and replacing the paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace HVAC/mechanicals — Repairing and replacing the HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the home's functionality and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — Landscape and improving the curb appeal will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend School District
• NCES district ID: 5308100
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,252
• Composite: 39.13/100
• National rank: #8243
• State rank: #199 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #5205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bend, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,848

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 6% Native American 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 277.1879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $89,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid