709 Pheasant Dr · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$147,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1977 0.47 ac lot $88/sqft · 45% below area Est $265k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,600 sqft, is located in the desirable Quail Creek neighborhood. This home features vaulted ceilings, an enclosed garage that serves as a versatile bonus space—perfect for a second living area or additional bedroom—and a nicely laid-out kitchen. Outside, enjoy a large covered patio ideal for entertaining, a storage shed for extra space, and a convenient carport for covered parking.

Key facts

• Enclosed garage
• Storage shed
• Large covered patio

Tags

• QUAIL CREEK NEIGHBORHOOD
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ENCLOSED GARAGE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENT CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aloe El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 426 students, 70% FRL); Patti Welder Middle (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 638 students, 79% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,000
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: -44.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 E Grouse Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-5%)	7mo	$319,000	$201	68
417 Dove Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (-12%)	2mo	$278,000	$190	54
305 Turkey Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-10%)	3mo	$341,000	$227	54
703 Duck Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-15%)	8mo	$185,000	$130	53
313 Pheasant	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+10%)	6mo	$250,000	$136	51
405 Turkey Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,822 (+9%)	6mo	$379,900	$209	46
102 Owl Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-14%)	3mo	$265,000	$185	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,654
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,411
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,216/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $200	+0% $158	+5% $117	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $95	+0% $158	+5% $221	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $196	base $158	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $147,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $147,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-03-24
    price $147,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,600 sqft, is located in the desirable Quail Creek neighborhood. This home features vaulted ceilings, an enclosed garage that serves as a versatile bonus space—perfect for a second living area or additional bedroom—and a nicely laid-out kitchen. Outside, enjoy a large covered patio ideal for entertaining, a storage shed for extra space, and a convenient carport for covered parking.

14. 2026-02-10
    price $162,500 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,600 sqft, is located in the desirable Quail Creek neighborhood. This home features vaulted ceilings, an enclosed garage that serves as a versatile bonus space—perfect for a second living area or additional bedroom—and a nicely laid-out kitchen. Outside, enjoy a large covered patio ideal for entertaining, a storage shed for extra space, and a convenient carport for covered parking.

15. 2026-01-16
    price $174,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,600 sqft, is located in the desirable Quail Creek neighborhood. This home features vaulted ceilings, an enclosed garage that serves as a versatile bonus space—perfect for a second living area or additional bedroom—and a nicely laid-out kitchen. Outside, enjoy a large covered patio ideal for entertaining, a storage shed for extra space, and a convenient carport for covered parking.

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $187,500 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,600 sqft, is located in the desirable Quail Creek neighborhood. This home features vaulted ceilings, an enclosed garage that serves as a versatile bonus space—perfect for a second living area or additional bedroom—and a nicely laid-out kitchen. Outside, enjoy a large covered patio ideal for entertaining, a storage shed for extra space, and a convenient carport for covered parking.

17. 2025-06-05
    historical
18. 2025-06-04
    price $199,400
19. 2025-05-28
    listed $199,500 Active
20. 2013-06-25
    soldstatus
21. 2013-06-21
    soldstatus $139,900
22. 2013-01-28
    listed $139,900
23. 2008-08-08
    soldstatus
24. 2008-08-07
    soldstatus $120,300
25. 2008-06-02
    listed $117,889
26. 2008-05-22
    soldstatus
27. 2001-04-01
    listed $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,216 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,216 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$3,216
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $1,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Quail Creek, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $147,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $162,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $174,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $187,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $199,400 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $199,500 CTXMLS
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-21 Sold (MLS) $139,900 CTXMLS
• 2013-01-28 Listed $139,900 CTXMLS
• 2008-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-07 Sold (MLS) $120,300 CTXMLS
• 2008-06-02 Listed $117,889 CTXMLS
• 2008-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-01 Listed $72,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,216 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.