8909 Camshire Cir · Warrington, FL 32507

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2012 3,484 sqft lot $191/sqft · 6% below area Est $210k · 10% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage welcomes you with a cozy front porch—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. Inside, you’ll find a bright open layout where the living and dining areas flow effortlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the home has been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout for a fresh, modern feel. For added convenience, the washer and dryer are included. This home has room for an office or a playroom, and the primary suite offers a private bath. Conveniently located approximately 10–15 minutes from NAS Pensacola. For added peace of mind, the home features a new HVAC system, and the seller will install a new roof with an acceptable offer. This property is part of the Habitat for Humanity program, offering an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers seeking affordable homeownership.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Front porch
• Access to shopping

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PRIVATE BATH
• ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($960/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,961 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,526
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8506 Gulf Beach Hwy	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (+4%)	22mo	$260,000	$254	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,521
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,118
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $134	+0% $80	+5% $27	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $13	+0% $80	+5% $147	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $128	base $80	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9692 Cobblebrook Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	24d	1	0.59mi
8527 San Juan Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	786	$1,150	$1.46	24d	1	0.59mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	14d	1	0.63mi
8584 Alvarado Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,200	$1.34	24d	1	0.68mi
1076 Antigua Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	21d	1	0.88mi
2018 Marquesas Ln Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,400	$1.25	24d	1	0.99mi
2600 S Blue Angel Pkwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,015	$1.71	14d	18	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $196,000 1002-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage welcomes you with a cozy front porch—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. Inside, you’ll find a bright open layout where the living and dining areas flow effortlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the home has been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout for a fresh, modern feel. For added convenience, the washer and dryer are included. This home has room for an office or a playroom, and the primary suite offers a private bath. Conveniently located approximately 10–15 minutes from NAS Pensacola. For added peace of mind, the home features a new HVAC system, and the seller will install a new roof with an acceptable offer. This property is part of the Habitat for Humanity program, offering an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers seeking affordable homeownership.

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $205,000 Active 1002-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage welcomes you with a cozy front porch—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. Inside, you’ll find a bright open layout where the living and dining areas flow effortlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the home has been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout for a fresh, modern feel. For added convenience, the washer and dryer are included. This home has room for an office or a playroom, and the primary suite offers a private bath. Conveniently located approximately 10–15 minutes from NAS Pensacola. For added peace of mind, the home features a new HVAC system, and the seller will install a new roof with an acceptable offer. This property is part of the Habitat for Humanity program, offering an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers seeking affordable homeownership.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$531
• After-tax cash flow: $1,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $196,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $205,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.