53 Sunset Cir · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1986 4,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/2 home has built-in China cabinet and and includes the appliances. Florida Room on the side. You own the land. Shed included. Home needs some TLC.

Key facts

• Oversized carport
• Spacious backyard
• Lake alfred

Tags

• LAKE ALFRED
• OVERSIZED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.1 acre (approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Faces south; Completed condition; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Metal siding and vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a single-wide manufactured body type
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage; Vinyl and wood fencing; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 90

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $90k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.36%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $18,014
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $57,711
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Sunset Cir Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,100	$0.94	3d	1	0.03mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	23d	1	1.10mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	23d	1	1.16mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	23d	1	1.26mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	23d	1	1.43mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	23d	1	1.43mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    listed $1,200
11. 2026-04-23
    price $90,000
12. 2026-04-16
    price $110,000
13. 2026-04-07
    price $124,000
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 2023-05-04
    soldstatus $60,000
16. 2023-05-01
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    2/2 home has built-in China cabinet and and includes the appliances. Florida Room on the side. You own the land. Shed included. Home needs some TLC.

17. 2023-01-17
    status Pending 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    2/2 home has built-in China cabinet and and includes the appliances. Florida Room on the side. You own the land. Shed included. Home needs some TLC.

18. 2023-01-12
    listed $69,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    2/2 home has built-in China cabinet and and includes the appliances. Florida Room on the side. You own the land. Shed included. Home needs some TLC.

19. 1981-10-01
    soldstatus $13,000
20. 1980-01-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $4,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,200 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $124,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-01 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-12 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 1980-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.