4516 Galesburg St Unit A · Houston, TX 77051

$319,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,186 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2025 2,770 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $326k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**NEW CONSTRUCTION** NO HOA* NO RESTRICTIONS** Contemporary single-family home 3 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths. Situated near major highways such as 288 and 610, this home provides easy access to downtown Houston, the Medical Center, NRG Stadium. Designed with modern living in mind, this residence offers a harmonious blend of style, comfort, and convenience. The gourmet kitchen is equipped with sleek stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a central island, The expansive living and dining areas feature high ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home.?

Key facts

• No restrictions
• New construction
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• NO HOA
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bastian El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 648 students, 99% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,324/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,835 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.63%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,689
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -2.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4516 Galesburg St Unit B	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,186 (0%)	1mo	$289,900	$133	99
4427 Elmwood St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-9%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	73
4425 Elmwood St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-9%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	73
8813 Edgar St	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-8%)	7mo	$365,000	$183	72
4508 Clover St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,159 (-1%)	5mo	$275,000	$127	70
4430 Sunflower St	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,076 (-5%)	6mo	$225,000	$108	65
4338 Larkspur St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,958 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$117	61
9023 Comal St	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,246 (+3%)	2mo	$335,000	$149	61
4418 Rosemont St	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,961 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$127	56
9003 Comal St	0.69mi	3/3.5	2,012 (-8%)	2mo	$339,900	$169	49
4519 Teton St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,998 (-9%)	7mo	$329,900	$165	48
4830 Teton St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (-12%)	3mo	$270,000	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $146,634
• Equity at exit: $287,380

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $465,935
• Equity at exit: $619,747

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,288/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,949

Max offer price $231,835

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-313	-5% $-403	+0% $-493	+5% $-584	+10% $-674
Rent	-10% $-677	-5% $-585	+0% $-493	+5% $-402	+10% $-310
Rate	-1.0pp $-333	-0.5pp $-412	base $-493	+0.5pp $-576	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	0.04mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	0.07mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	0.15mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	0.24mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	0.39mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	0.39mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	16d	1	0.41mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.49mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	0.51mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	0.82mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	4d	1	0.83mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	0.84mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	0.87mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	1.00mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	15d	1	1.01mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.02mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.02mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	26d	1	1.05mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	15d	1	1.06mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	45d	1	1.08mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	45d	1	1.09mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	45d	1	1.15mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	22d	1	1.18mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	22d	1	1.18mi
7339 Krueger Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2440	$1,900	$0.78	45d	1	1.25mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	1.25mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.34mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	26d	1	1.43mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.48mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-02-24
    listed $319,000 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    **NEW CONSTRUCTION** NO HOA* NO RESTRICTIONS** Contemporary single-family home 3 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths. Situated near major highways such as 288 and 610, this home provides easy access to downtown Houston, the Medical Center, NRG Stadium. Designed with modern living in mind, this residence offers a harmonious blend of style, comfort, and convenience. The gourmet kitchen is equipped with sleek stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a central island, The expansive living and dining areas feature high ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home.?

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,288 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,288 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,288
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$11,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,784
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $319,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+105.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,288 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.