The Colorado F Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$294,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily · 461 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Colorado! This lovely home features an open family and kitchen space with a breakfast area and walk-in pantry. Enjoy a private primary suite with a spacious walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms as well as another full bathroom. This floor plan also includes a two-car garage. Make it your own with The Colorado's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Colorado your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Breakfast area
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN FAMILY AND KITCHEN SPACE
• BREAKFAST AREA
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,347.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,134 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,347
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: 1.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Harlingen Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+3%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	84
7890 Alset Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-0%)	15mo	$296,900	$188	67
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,609 (+1%)	1mo	$220,995	$137	63
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (+3%)	2mo	$242,995	$149	59
507 Odessa Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-9%)	9mo	$259,900	$179	46
522 Sabino Sky Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-14%)	13mo	$234,995	$173	46
627 Coyote Canyon Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-12%)	19mo	$269,000	$191	39
30102 Dunlevy St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+13%)	6mo	$349,990	$194	38
126 Sarah Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-8%)	22mo	$167,900	$115	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $131,531
• Equity at exit: $261,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $393,851
• Equity at exit: $564,080

Cash invested: $81,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,355/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $242,499

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-230	+0% $-331	+5% $-431	+10% $-531
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-414	+0% $-331	+5% $-247	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-257	base $-331	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,587
• Closing costs: $8,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	24d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 452 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,990 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 443 DOM
14. 2025-03-14
    listed $294,990 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    Welcome to The Colorado! This lovely home features an open family and kitchen space with a breakfast area and walk-in pantry. Enjoy a private primary suite with a spacious walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms as well as another full bathroom. This floor plan also includes a two-car garage. Make it your own with The Colorado's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Colorado your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,264
• − Property taxes: −$4,355
• − Insurance: −$1,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$8,446
• Taxable loss: −$9,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-14 Listed $294,990 Zillow