Is 12500 Melville Dr Unit 320B in Montgomery, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 6.7% cap rate and $40/mo modeled cash flow at a $132,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12500 Melville Dr Unit 320B?

The modeled cap rate is 6.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,648/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

C Composite 57.05

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +15.0/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +7.5/10.0
Schools +5.9/10.0
DSCR +4.6/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +1.7/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$132,000

12500 Melville Dr Unit 320B · Montgomery, TX 77356

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Condo · 47 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $146/sqft · 48% below area Est $252k · 48% under · waterfront $350/mo HOA · 21% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Enjoy a fantastic opportunity to own a fully furnished condo in the sought-after community of Walden on Lake Conroe. Just bring your clothes—this turnkey retreat is ready for lake living! The condo offers one bedroom and a spacious loft, each with its own full bath. The kitchen opens to a generous living area with vaulted ceilings, creating an airy, open feel. A wall of windows and a sliding glass door lead to a private balcony overlooking the community pond and pool—an ideal setting for peaceful relaxation. With no neighbors above, you’ll appreciate the added privacy.

Key facts

Fitness center
Community pool
Private balcony

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,040 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.25% ✓
Cap rate: 6.66%
Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
DSCR: 1.06
GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $251,628
List price: $132,000
Delta: -44.76%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.8%
Equity multiple: 0.37×
Total profit: $-23,432
Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

IRR: -23.0%
Equity multiple: 0.06×
Total profit: $-34,817
Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active · 2 under contract
Median asking: $209,500 ($247/sqft)
Median days on market: 1 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

Home prices YoY: -30.3%
Rents YoY: -3.3%
Active inventory: 1304
Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,648 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$692
Tax est. 1.5%: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
Insurance: −$55
HOA: −$350
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $86	+0% $40	+5% $-6	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-25	+0% $40	+5% $105	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $74	base $40	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $33,000
Closing costs: $3,960
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	93d	1	0.02mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	93d	1	0.02mi
12100 Melville Dr Unit 403D Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$1,200	$1.76	7d	1	0.22mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	93d	2	0.22mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,295	$1.82	16d	2	0.85mi
12900 Walden Rd Unit 218 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	25d	1	0.86mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Association poolPets allowed with restrictions
HOA & community: Walden Community Improvement AssociationMonthly association feeAssociation amenities: marina, boat ramp, sport court, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, pool, tennis courts, trails, trashAssociation fee covers common areas, insurance, recreation facilities, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

Parking: No assigned parking
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property2 storiesFull ownership
Construction: Wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 1978
Exterior features: BalconyDeckPatioTennis courtsPond

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGarbage disposalMicrowaveOvenRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (14 x 8)First-floor bedroom (10 x 13)
Flooring: Tile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerVaulted ceilingsWindow treatmentsLoftCombined living and dining areaProgrammable thermostatWindow coverings
Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

HOA detail $350/mo · $4,200/yr condo

Likely covers: pool
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $132,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $132,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $132,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $132,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $132,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $132,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $132,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $132,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $132,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $132,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $132,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $132,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $132,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $132,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $132,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $132,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $132,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $132,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $132,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $132,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $132,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $132,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $132,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $132,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $132,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $132,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $132,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $132,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $132,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $132,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $132,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $132,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $132,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $132,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $132,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $132,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-24

pricedays on marketlisting id $132,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $139,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $139,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $139,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $139,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $139,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $139,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $139,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $139,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $139,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $139,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $139,000 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $19,781
− Mortgage interest: −$7,394
− Property taxes: −$1,980
− Insurance: −$660
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
− Management: −$1,582
− HOA: −$4,200
− Depreciation: −$3,840
Taxable loss: −$1,458

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,510–$13,530 screening

This fully furnished and move-in-ready condo is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious living area, a private balcony, and a community pool and Yacht Club. The property is located in a sought-after community with various amenities.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
Both Clean the pool and surrounding area — A clean and well-maintained pool area can attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑
Both Replace the outdoor cushions — New cushions can make the outdoor seating area more inviting and comfortable for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madeley Ranch El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Montgomery ISD
NCES district ID: 4831260
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $75,596
Composite: 53.55/100
National rank: #1445
State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

Score: 70/100
State rank: #372
US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 67,277
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 32,583
Household income: $106,804
Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
Current HPI: 233.0032
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-22 Listed $132,000 HARMLS
2026-02-15 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
2019-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2019-04-24 Relisted — HARMLS
2019-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2019-04-15 Price Changed $98,000 HARMLS
2019-03-08 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
2019-02-15 Listed $102,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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