12500 Melville Dr Unit 320B · Conroe, TX 77356

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Condo · 126 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $154/sqft · 25% below area Est $186k · 25% under · waterfront $350/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy a fantastic opportunity to own a fully furnished condo in the sought-after community of Walden on Lake Conroe. Just bring your clothes—this turnkey retreat is ready for lake living! The condo offers one bedroom and a spacious loft, each with its own full bath. The kitchen opens to a generous living area with vaulted ceilings, creating an airy, open feel. A wall of windows and a sliding glass door lead to a private balcony overlooking the community pond and pool—an ideal setting for peaceful relaxation. With no neighbors above, you’ll appreciate the added privacy. Walden amenities include a community pool, Yacht Club and Breakwater Grill restaurants, fitness center with lap pool, racquet club with pickleball, boat ramps to Lake Conroe, dog park, playground, and walking paths.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Community pool

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED CONDO
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,338
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -25.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-25,185
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-37,531
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $81	+0% $33	+5% $-15	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-34	+0% $33	+5% $100	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $68	base $33	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	45d	1	0.02mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	45d	1	0.02mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	45d	2	0.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-02-15
    listed $139,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Enjoy a fantastic opportunity to own a fully furnished condo in the sought-after community of Walden on Lake Conroe. Just bring your clothes—this turnkey retreat is ready for lake living! The condo offers one bedroom and a spacious loft, each with its own full bath. The kitchen opens to a generous living area with vaulted ceilings, creating an airy, open feel. A wall of windows and a sliding glass door lead to a private balcony overlooking the community pond and pool—an ideal setting for peaceful relaxation. With no neighbors above, you’ll appreciate the added privacy. Walden amenities include a community pool, Yacht Club and Breakwater Grill restaurants, fitness center with lap pool, racquet club with pickleball, boat ramps to Lake Conroe, dog park, playground, and walking paths.

17. 2019-05-02
    historical
18. 2019-04-24
    status Active
19. 2019-04-24
    historical
20. 2019-04-15
    price $98,000
21. 2019-03-08
    price $100,000
22. 2019-02-15
    listed $102,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$401
• After-tax cash flow: $793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished and move-in-ready condo is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious living area, a private balcony, and a community pool and Yacht Club. The property is located in a sought-after community with various amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Clean the pool and surrounding area — A clean and well-maintained pool area can attract more potential buyers and renters.
• Both Replace the outdoor cushions — New cushions can make the outdoor seating area more inviting and comfortable for potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Clean the pool and surrounding area — A clean and well-maintained pool area can attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Replace the outdoor cushions — New cushions can make the outdoor seating area more inviting and comfortable for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-15 Price Changed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-08 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-15 Listed $102,000 HARMLS