1409 Zephyr Rd · Killeen, TX 76541

$169,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1961 9,077 sqft lot Est $191k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,888 square feet of comfortable living space and outstanding outdoor areas. A brand-new 30-year roof installed in 2024 provides peace of mind, while expansive front and back patios create ideal spaces for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, built-in bookcases add character and functionality, and the home is equipped with central A/C and natural gas heating for year-round comfort. The large covered back patio overlooks the yard and is complemented by a storage building for added convenience. With solid bones and plenty of potential, this home is ready for your personal updates and finishing touches.

Key facts

• Natural gas heating
• Built-in bookcases
• Central a/c

Tags

• 30-YEAR ROOF
• FRONT AND BACK PATIOS
• BUILT-IN BOOKCASES
• CENTRAL A/C
• NATURAL GAS HEATING
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone service available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No stairs (accessible); Bookcases; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manor Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 614 students, 75% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,787 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,688
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2104 Delwin Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,952 (+3%)	4mo	$205,000	$105	63
1005 Redondo Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (-8%)	3mo	$185,000	$106	61
2218 Terrace Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (-6%)	8mo	$116,000	$65	58
1007 Illinois Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-8%)	2mo	$100,000	$58	53
1308 Carrollton Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (+4%)	11mo	$199,800	$101	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.26% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,787
• Equity at exit: $69,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $34,176
• Equity at exit: $101,868

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76541

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,094/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $164,261

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $16	+0% $-32	+5% $-80	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-87	+0% $-32	+5% $23	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $11	base $-32	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 Alta Mira Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1294	$1,099	$0.85	25d	1	0.08mi
1302 Metropolitan Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1883	$1,550	$0.82	25d	1	0.18mi
1302 Redondo Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,200	$0.90	45d	1	0.19mi
1505 S W S Young Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	1.0	1441	$1,150	$0.80	25d	1	0.20mi
1315 Estes Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	25d	1	0.20mi
1305 Arkansas Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,300	$1.02	25d	1	0.29mi
1513 Missouri Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,300	$1.03	45d	1	0.29mi
913 Estelle Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1292	$1,445	$1.12	15d	1	0.36mi
2218 Terrace Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	15d	1	0.37mi
2303 Dover Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	25d	1	0.41mi
2318 Terrace Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,299	$0.95	46d	1	0.48mi
1417 Jasper Garden Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	45d	1	0.49mi
2312 Doris Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	0.49mi
801 S W S Young Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,043	$1.99	15d	12	0.57mi
1300 Grandon Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$1,275	$0.61	25d	1	0.60mi
1404 E Vardeman Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$1,695	$0.90	15d	1	0.64mi
506 Powell St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1546	$1,400	$0.91	45d	1	0.65mi
1409 Opal Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,400	$1.06	45d	1	0.72mi
1419 Amber Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,345	$1.02	45d	1	0.78mi
1412 Van Zanten Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2564	$1,100	$0.43	45d	1	0.80mi
2905 Taft St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,095	$1.69	45d	1	0.82mi
205 W Vardeman Ave Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1824	$925	$0.51	45d	1	0.87mi
1702 Topaz Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,500	$1.01	25d	1	0.88mi
1205 Florence Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1989	$1,450	$0.73	25d	1	0.93mi
3102 Zephyr Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,095	$0.86	45d	1	0.95mi
3200 Zephyr Rd Unit Labs Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.97mi
906 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,050	$0.80	15d	1	1.07mi
1504 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,100	$0.87	15d	1	1.07mi
312 Lowes Blvd Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,299	$0.97	45d	1	1.08mi
907 San Antonio St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1303	$1,195	$0.92	45d	1	1.08mi
1003 San Antonio St Killeen, TX	4.0	1.0	1452	$1,095	$0.75	45d	1	1.08mi
1516 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,295	$1.06	46d	1	1.09mi
202 Lowes Blvd Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	1.15mi
200 Lowes Blvd Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,350	$1.01	25d	1	1.15mi
1600 Quarry Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2136	$1,895	$0.89	45d	1	1.15mi
1604 Quarry Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,000	$0.96	45d	1	1.15mi
1704 Boydstun Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,400	$1.10	25d	1	1.17mi
1201 Greenwood Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	45d	1	1.18mi
3203 Dorothy Jane Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,425	$1.04	15d	1	1.19mi
1512 Grey Fox Trl Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 639-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $169,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,094 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,094
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,011
• Household income: $37,349
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% White 31% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Current HPI: 168.1206
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $169,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1975-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,094 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.