10973 Balsam St · Willis, TX 77318

$92,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1996 8,472 sqft lot $76/sqft · 34% below area Est $138k · 34% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a home or rental property in a lake community on Lake Conroe. This 2 bedroom 2 bath home would make great investment property or your weekend getaway. Needs a little TLC. House sits on 4 lots.

Key facts

• Sits on 4 lots
• Lake community
• Investment property

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• SITS ON 4 LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $92k implies a 1704% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.08%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,428
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -33.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	83
9871 Arbor Oak	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	76
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$120,000	$99	72
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$62,900	$52	71
8888 Water Oak St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-8%)	12mo	$195,000	$174	51
12751 Paradise View Ct W	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-8%)	8mo	$140,000	$125	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $18,891
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $48,153
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.09mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.09mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.09mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.14mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.20mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.20mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.92mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $92,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-02-12
    listed $92,000 Active 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home or rental property in a lake community on Lake Conroe. This 2 bedroom 2 bath home would make great investment property or your weekend getaway. Needs a little TLC. House sits on 4 lots.

15. 2012-06-08
    soldstatus
16. 2012-06-08
    soldstatus
17. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus
18. 2012-01-31
    soldstatus
19. 2006-02-27
    soldstatus $5,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,684 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $6,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $5,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1703.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $92,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $5,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.