1516 Haven Dr N · Forestdale, AL 35214

$97,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1957 0.34 ac lot $94/sqft · 24% below area Est $137k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Covered parking
• Large backyard

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 6.5% in Forestdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $677 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.95%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,591
• List price: $97,900
• Delta: -28.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Hedgewood Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	22mo	$88,500	$89	49
1646 Roberta Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	960 (-7%)	22mo	$155,000	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,866
• Equity at exit: $14,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $25,382
• Equity at exit: $8,465

Cash invested: $27,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35214

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$513
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,205/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $97,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,475
• Closing costs: $2,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
656 Kenwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,175	$0.94	16d	1	0.28mi
1712 Riderwood Trl Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	16d	1	0.43mi
1533 Choctaw Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1241	$1,175	$0.95	43d	1	0.45mi
161 Cindy Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,425	$1.03	23d	1	0.68mi
1344 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	936	$980	$1.05	43d	1	0.73mi
308 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,250	$0.85	43d	1	0.79mi
305 Rose Hill Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1285	$1,200	$0.93	10d	1	0.81mi
328 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,100	$0.75	43d	1	0.85mi
1147 Oakley Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1352	$1,250	$0.92	43d	1	0.98mi
1143 Oakley Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,300	$1.22	43d	1	1.00mi
1204 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,125	$1.00	16d	1	1.00mi
1137 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	993	$1,045	$1.05	2d	1	1.02mi
115 Crabapple Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	906	$1,027	$1.13	11d	19	1.05mi
779 Heflin Ave E Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1052	$1,100	$1.05	19d	1	1.12mi
120 Dewberry Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,510	$1.02	19d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,900 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,900 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,900 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,900 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,900 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $97,900 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

15. 2026-05-18
    price $97,900 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

16. 2026-04-24
    price $105,000 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $105,000 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

18. 2026-01-05
    listed $110,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

19. 2025-12-22
    listed $110,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity or affordable owner-occupant option! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious primary bedroom, hardwood and LVP flooring, and granite countertops throughout. The home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard, covered parking, and a storage shed, offering functionality that tenants and homeowners alike appreciate. The property has performed well as a rental and presents an excellent chance to add value with exterior improvements, which are already reflected in the price. Schedule a showing today to jump on this "right-priced" property before someone else adds it to their portfolio.

20. 2025-10-12
    historical $1,025
21. 2025-09-14
    price $1,025
22. 2025-08-23
    listed $1,099

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,205 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,205 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,484
• − Property taxes: −$1,205
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$2,848
• Taxable income: $3,266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$784
• After-tax cash flow: $3,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 12,240
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,027
• Household income: $56,383
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 578.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% White 18% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.48%
• Current HPI: 218.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+8808.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $97,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $97,900 WAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $105,000 WAMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $110,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $110,000 WAMLS
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $1,025 RENTLY
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $1,025 RENTLY
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,099 RENTLY

Property tax history

+25.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,205 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.