Kimble Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$362,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Kimble's inviting covered porch and welcoming foyer hallway with tray ceilings reveal the spacious great room and desirable covered patio with cathedral ceilings. The well-designed kitchen overlooks a bright casual dining area, and is complete with a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and roomy walk-in pantry. The sophisticated primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, enormous walk-in closet, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, linen storage, and private water closet. Secondary bedrooms feature sizable closets and shared full hall bath. Additional highlights include a con

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Kitchen
• Casual dining area

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $362,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home; New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 1922 Crown Wood Dr, Missouri City, TX 77459

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Kimble); Living area approximately 1884

🏗️ New construction. The $362,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $383,597.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,105 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,597
• List price: $362,995
• Delta: -5.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+5%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	68
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0	2,033 (+8%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	63
10702 Pleasant View Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,879 (-0%)	8mo	$359,900	$192	60
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-2%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	59
1515 Park Path Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,068 (+10%)	9mo	$375,000	$181	51
1523 Park Path Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+10%)	12mo	$375,000	$181	49
1439 Park Path Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-9%)	16mo	$350,000	$203	48
1527 Park Path Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+12%)	14mo	$405,000	$192	45
1519 Park Path Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+12%)	15mo	$426,957	$203	43
1454 Shaded Rock Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-9%)	19mo	$337,990	$197	36
1452 Shaded Rock Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+9%)	19mo	$372,090	$182	29
1438 Shaded Rock Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+9%)	19mo	$378,640	$185	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-39,092
• Equity at exit: $80,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-39,594
• Equity at exit: $74,517

Cash invested: $107,407 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,012
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$479 /mo · $5,754/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,356

Max offer price $383,597

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $316	+0% $183	+5% $51	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $41	+0% $183	+5% $325	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $281	base $183	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,899
• Closing costs: $11,508
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.27mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $362,995 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $362,995 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $362,995 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $362,995 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $362,995 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $362,995 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $362,995 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $362,995 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $362,995 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $362,995 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $362,995 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,995 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    listed $362,995 Active 773-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,487
• − Property taxes: −$5,754
• − Insurance: −$1,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,444
• − Management: −$3,444
• − Depreciation: −$11,159
• Taxable loss: −$4,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $3,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B