8 Essex Ln · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $800/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fall asleep to the peaceful sound of running water right in your own backyard. Beautifully maintained double-wide located in the desirable River Valley Estates, formerly Foxcroft Village, within the Tri-Valley School District. This home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy peaceful, nature-filled living with the convenience of a community setting. The home features a newly installed water filtration system, providing added value and peace of mind. Stackable washer and stainless-steel appliances including a new sink. Completely updated from top to flooring. Affordable living with luxury details! The true highlight of this property is its breathtaking natural setting—situated along a clear, gently flowing creek bordering the backyard. Enjoy the calming sights and sounds of the water, surrounded by mature trees and natural greenery, creating a serene and relaxing environment. A closed-in sitting area provides the perfect place to relax year-round while taking in the tranquil views—ideal for morning coffee or quiet evenings. Residents of River Valley Estates enjoy community amenities including a pool and playhouse, adding to the overall lifestyle appeal. Offered furnished with furniture and contents included, making this a true turnkey opportunity. A rare chance to own a home where nature, comfort, and convenience come together. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Recessed lighting
• Updated flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• UPDATED FLOORING
• WHITE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-485/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.

Recommended offer $69,051 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $38,734
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $117,116
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $69,051

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $74,900 Active 1399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1399 chars)

    Fall asleep to the peaceful sound of running water right in your own backyard. Beautifully maintained double-wide located in the desirable River Valley Estates, formerly Foxcroft Village, within the Tri-Valley School District. This home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy peaceful, nature-filled living with the convenience of a community setting. The home features a newly installed water filtration system, providing added value and peace of mind. Stackable washer and stainless-steel appliances including a new sink. Completely updated from top to flooring. Affordable living with luxury details! The true highlight of this property is its breathtaking natural setting—situated along a clear, gently flowing creek bordering the backyard. Enjoy the calming sights and sounds of the water, surrounded by mature trees and natural greenery, creating a serene and relaxing environment. A closed-in sitting area provides the perfect place to relax year-round while taking in the tranquil views—ideal for morning coffee or quiet evenings. Residents of River Valley Estates enjoy community amenities including a pool and playhouse, adding to the overall lifestyle appeal. Offered furnished with furniture and contents included, making this a true turnkey opportunity. A rare chance to own a home where nature, comfort, and convenience come together. Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable loss: −$1,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $-203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This double-wide manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates and a good condition score. It offers a peaceful natural setting with a water filtration system and new appliances, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale Trim and mulch landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New lighting can improve safety and curb appeal
• Resale Install a new water filtration system — A new water filtration system can add value and peace of mind

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Trim and mulch landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New lighting can improve safety and curb appeal ↑
• Resale Install a new water filtration system — A new water filtration system can add value and peace of mind ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $74,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid