1617 S Harley Dr · Harker Heights, TX 76548

$145,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 666 Days on market

Built 1971 5,684 sqft lot $100/sqft · 28% below area Est $203k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four Bedroom One Bathroom Single Family Home located in Harker Heights available now! This home is in a Great location near Market Heights with lots to do in the area with family and friends!

Key facts

• Single family home
• 5,684 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Harker Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#61 in TX, #2,271 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 666 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 666 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,675
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -28.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 W Cherokee Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (+5%)	13mo	$219,000	$143	66
301 E Cherokee Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-5%)	3mo	$209,000	$152	63
224 W Beeline Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	4mo	$235,000	$157	63
210 W Dove Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-4%)	9mo	$200,000	$143	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,995
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,672
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76548

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,479/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $242	+0% $201	+5% $160	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $135	+0% $201	+5% $267	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $238	base $201	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Harley Dr Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	44d	1	0.02mi
1102 S Ann Blvd Harker Heights, TX	3.0	1.5	1139	$1,350	$1.19	44d	1	0.23mi
806 White Meadow Ln Unit B Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,450	$1.04	44d	1	0.43mi
203 Dale Earnhardt Dr Unit A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,199	$1.03	44d	1	0.50mi
214 Dale Earnhardt Dr Unit A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,300	$1.12	24d	1	0.58mi
220 Dale Earnhardt Dr Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,147	$0.95	14d	1	0.62mi
220 Dale Earnhardt Dr Unit B Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,147	$0.95	24d	1	0.62mi
221 Dale Earnhardt Dr Unit A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,300	$1.16	14d	1	0.64mi
505 Bonnie Dr Unit B Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,300	$0.95	44d	1	0.68mi
502 S Mary Jo Dr Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	44d	1	0.69mi
302 Jeff Gordon Dr Unit A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,195	$1.03	14d	1	0.74mi
409 S Amy Ln Unit C Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$900	$0.76	24d	1	0.79mi
406 Brittney Way Unit D Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$950	$0.82	44d	1	0.80mi
409 Brittney Way Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$895	$0.78	24d	1	0.80mi
5401 Rose Garden Loop Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,550	$1.21	24d	1	0.82mi
5403 Rose Garden Loop Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,550	$1.17	44d	1	0.84mi
316 Jeff Gordon Dr Unit A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,495	$1.29	24d	1	0.84mi
316 Jeff Gordon Dr Unit B Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,395	$1.20	44d	1	0.84mi
106 W Kathey Rd Unit B Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,395	$1.04	24d	1	0.87mi
915 Rebecca Ln Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,275	$1.01	14d	1	0.90mi
5415 Rose Garden Loop Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,600	$1.21	44d	1	0.91mi
5116 Rose Garden Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,675	$1.31	45d	1	0.92mi
5116 Rose Garden Loop Unit 1 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,650	$1.29	44d	1	0.92mi
5322 Birmingham Cir Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,667	$0.94	44d	1	0.92mi
5112 Rose Garden Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,750	$1.41	44d	1	0.93mi
5110 Rose Garden Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,750	$1.41	44d	1	0.94mi
5104 Rose Garden Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	44d	1	0.96mi
5101 Rose Petal Ct Unit 1 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,675	$1.31	14d	1	1.02mi
6110 Melanie Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,900	$1.05	24d	1	1.02mi
5107 Rose Petal Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,675	$1.31	14d	1	1.04mi
5109 Rose Petal Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,675	$1.31	14d	1	1.04mi
5106 White Rose Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,650	$1.16	44d	1	1.04mi
4913 Rose Garden Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	44d	1	1.06mi
230 N Mary Jo Dr Apt A Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.5	1329	$1,550	$1.17	44d	1	1.08mi
5209 White Rose Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,650	$1.31	44d	1	1.12mi
5305 Morning Glen Ln Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,095	$0.90	44d	1	1.13mi
1701 Lynx Cir Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1451	$2,800	$1.93	44d	1	1.13mi
5203 Daybreak Dr Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,225	$1.07	14d	1	1.22mi
709 Beaver Trl Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,595	$1.19	44d	1	1.26mi
4600 Acorn Creek Trl Unit 1 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,150	$1.05	24d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 666 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 665 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 664 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 663 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 661 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 660 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 658 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 657 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 656 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 655 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 651 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 650 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 649 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 648 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 647 DOM
16. 2026-01-12
    status Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Four Bedroom One Bathroom Single Family Home located in Harker Heights available now! This home is in a Great location near Market Heights with lots to do in the area with family and friends!

17. 2025-12-31
    historical 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Four Bedroom One Bathroom Single Family Home located in Harker Heights available now! This home is in a Great location near Market Heights with lots to do in the area with family and friends!

18. 2024-08-09
    listed $145,000 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Four Bedroom One Bathroom Single Family Home located in Harker Heights available now! This home is in a Great location near Market Heights with lots to do in the area with family and friends!

19. 2009-08-27
    historical
20. 2009-07-23
    listed $92,000
21. 2008-07-08
    historical
22. 2008-06-13
    listed $94,000
23. 2008-02-26
    soldstatus
24. 1981-05-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,479 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,479 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,479
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harker Heights

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #2271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harker Heights, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 33,729
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,729
• Household income: $80,520
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.76%
• Current HPI: 156.4499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-08-09 Listed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2009-08-27 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2009-07-23 Listed $92,000 CTXMLS
• 2008-07-08 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2008-06-13 Listed $94,000 CTXMLS
• 2008-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,479 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.