Juniper Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$392,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience comfort, convenience, and timeless style in The Juniper. This beautifully crafted one-story home offers approximately 2,170 square feet of open and inviting living space, featuring 4-5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 2-3 car garage. The heart of the home is a spacious kitchen with a large island, walk-in pantry, and open flow into the casual dining area and great room, creating a warm and welcoming space ideal for entertaining or family time. The primary suite offers a private retreat complete with a spa inspired bath, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet. Flexible design options allow you to personalize your home to fit your lifestyle. Choose a study or flex room, an additional fifth bedroom, or enhance your primary bath with an enlarged shower and expanded closet. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, creating the perfect spot to relax and enjoy time with family and friends. With its thoughtful layout, modern finishes, and versatile options, The Juniper combines luxurious comfort with everyday functionality, all on one level.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Casual dining area
• Large island

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $392,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $471,799.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $393k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-928 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J A Vitovsky El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 60% FRL); Frank Seale Middle (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 671 students, 55% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 22% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,209 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,799
• List price: $392,990
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4349 Noble Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,204 (+2%)	1mo	$426,220	$193	73
4345 Biddle St	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,346 (+8%)	3mo	$489,990	$209	70
3726 Ironwood St	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,122 (-2%)	1mo	$473,576	$223	70
4324 Knight	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,044 (-6%)	5mo	$414,930	$203	70
4376 Biddle St	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,335 (+8%)	11mo	$474,500	$203	69
4384 Knight St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,165 (-0%)	10mo	$406,110	$188	67
769 Brozgold Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,297 (+6%)	10mo	$404,140	$176	60
4372 Addison St	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,487 (+15%)	4mo	$434,990	$175	59
741 Brozgold Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,297 (+6%)	8mo	$417,290	$182	59
720 Brozgold Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,297 (+6%)	8mo	$440,670	$192	58
725 Carriage Hill Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,437 (+12%)	5mo	$458,000	$188	58
513 Carriage Hill Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,431 (+12%)	1mo	$449,790	$185	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-131,562
• Equity at exit: $70,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-173,771
• Equity at exit: $40,793

Cash invested: $132,104 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1135
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$590 /mo · $7,077/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-928

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,127

Max offer price $337,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-602	-5% $-765	+0% $-928	+5% $-1,091	+10% $-1,254
Rent	-10% $-1,162	-5% $-1,045	+0% $-928	+5% $-812	+10% $-695
Rate	-1.0pp $-691	-0.5pp $-808	base $-928	+0.5pp $-1,051	+1.0pp $-1,175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,950
• Closing costs: $14,154
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4349 Noble Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	2204	$2,900	$1.32	4d	1	0.28mi
2750 Gathering Pl Midlothian, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1372	$2,749	$2.00	4d	29	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $392,990 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $392,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $392,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $392,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $392,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $392,990 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $392,990 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $392,990 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $392,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $392,990 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,990 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $392,990 1069-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

    Experience comfort, convenience, and timeless style in The Juniper. This beautifully crafted one-story home offers approximately 2,170 square feet of open and inviting living space, featuring 4-5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 2-3 car garage. The heart of the home is a spacious kitchen with a large island, walk-in pantry, and open flow into the casual dining area and great room, creating a warm and welcoming space ideal for entertaining or family time. The primary suite offers a private retreat complete with a spa inspired bath, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet. Flexible design options allow you to personalize your home to fit your lifestyle. Choose a study or flex room, an additional fifth bedroom, or enhance your primary bath with an enlarged shower and expanded closet. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, creating the perfect spot to relax and enjoy time with family and friends. With its thoughtful layout, modern finishes, and versatile options, The Juniper combines luxurious comfort with everyday functionality, all on one level.

16. 2025-12-30
    listed $389,990 Active 1069-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

    Experience comfort, convenience, and timeless style in The Juniper. This beautifully crafted one-story home offers approximately 2,170 square feet of open and inviting living space, featuring 4-5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 2-3 car garage. The heart of the home is a spacious kitchen with a large island, walk-in pantry, and open flow into the casual dining area and great room, creating a warm and welcoming space ideal for entertaining or family time. The primary suite offers a private retreat complete with a spa inspired bath, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet. Flexible design options allow you to personalize your home to fit your lifestyle. Choose a study or flex room, an additional fifth bedroom, or enhance your primary bath with an enlarged shower and expanded closet. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, creating the perfect spot to relax and enjoy time with family and friends. With its thoughtful layout, modern finishes, and versatile options, The Juniper combines luxurious comfort with everyday functionality, all on one level.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,428
• − Property taxes: −$7,077
• − Insurance: −$2,359
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,834
• − Management: −$2,834
• − Depreciation: −$13,725
• Taxable loss: −$19,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,760
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-30 Listed $389,990 Zillow