Holcombe Plan · Berthoud, CO 80513

$527,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,398 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Holcombe is a Gorgeous 2-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,398 sq. ft. of living space. Upgraded Finishes & Features: Stainless steel appliances, including gas range, microwave, and dishwasher Granite countertops with under-mount stainless steel dual-basin sink Smart home technology package (smart speaker, video doorbell, programmable thermostat, and touchscreen) The Holcombe is a spacious floor plan that is affordable and provides functionality! Expansive 9'main level ceilings Chrome faucets in kitchen and baths Tankless water heater Garage door opener Low-maintenance vinyl flooring in baths and laundry Builder warranty and much more!

Key facts

• Chrome faucets
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE
• CHROME FAUCETS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL FLOORING

🏗️ New construction. The $527,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $590,417.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $528k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $403k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#100 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Thompson School District R-2J (suburban): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #28 of 86 in CO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berthoud Elementary School (math 54% / reading 57%, grade C+, #143 of 966 statewide, top 15%, 509 students, 18% FRL); Turner Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #56 of 270 statewide, top 23%, 461 students, 19% FRL); Berthoud High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 467 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $352,443 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.41%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $590,417
• List price: $527,990
• Delta: -10.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1365 Westport Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,548 (+6%)	7mo	$657,500	$258	74
1521 Sun River Rd	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,481 (+4%)	18mo	$615,000	$248	73
1793 Vantage Pkwy	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,398 (0%)	23mo	$624,900	$261	63
1432 Sunrise Hill Dr	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,652 (+11%)	5mo	$650,000	$245	61
1800 Westport Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,653 (+11%)	6mo	$689,900	$260	52
840 10th St	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,588 (+8%)	17mo	$536,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-178,159
• Equity at exit: $88,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-261,204
• Equity at exit: $51,048

Cash invested: $165,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $572,495 ($217/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80513

• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$738 /mo · $8,856/yr
• Insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $-1,296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,165

Max offer price $402,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-888	-5% $-1,092	+0% $-1,296	+5% $-1,500	+10% $-1,704
Rent	-10% $-1,574	-5% $-1,435	+0% $-1,296	+5% $-1,157	+10% $-1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $-999	-0.5pp $-1,146	base $-1,296	+0.5pp $-1,449	+1.0pp $-1,605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,604
• Closing costs: $17,713
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1695 Vantage Pkwy Berthoud, CO	4.0	2.5	3314	$4,200	$1.27	119d	1	0.24mi
1506 Oak Dr Berthoud, CO	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,850	$1.71	0d	1	0.32mi
716 N 4th St Berthoud, CO	4.0	4.0	3000	$4,200	$1.40	119d	1	0.85mi
1512 Chokeberry St Berthoud, CO	4.0	3.5	2648	$3,169	$1.20	109d	1	0.86mi
1232 Chilcott St Berthoud, CO	4.0	2.5	2258	$3,100	$1.37	119d	1	1.05mi
1088 Blue Bell Rd Berthoud, CO	3.0	2.5	1949	$2,800	$1.44	119d	1	1.48mi
2837 Urban Pl Unit A Berthoud, CO	3.0	3.5	2262	$2,595	$1.15	0d	1	1.49mi
243 Beetle Ln Berthoud, CO	3.0	3.0	2712	$2,495	$0.92	109d	1	1.49mi
243 Beetle Ln Berthoud, CO	3.0	3.0	2712	$2,495	$0.92	119d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $527,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Holcombe)New construction (inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 957 Andrews Crest Dr, Berthoud, CO 80513

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (plan: Holcombe)Total living area approximately 2398

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-07-29
   days on market $527,990 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-07-27
   days on market $527,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-07-25
   days on market $527,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-07-23
   days on market $527,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-07-22
   days on market $527,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-07-21
   days on market $527,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $527,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $527,990 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $527,990 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-07-14
    days on market $527,990 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $527,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-07-12
    days on market $527,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-07-11
    days on market $527,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    days on market $527,990 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-07-08
    days on market $527,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-07-07
    days on market $527,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $527,990 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-07-05
    days on market $527,990 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-07-04
    days on market $527,990 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $527,990 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $527,990 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $527,990 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $527,990 Active 28 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $527,990 Active 27 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $527,990 Active 26 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $527,990 Active 25 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $527,990 Active 24 DOM
28. 2026-06-25
    days on market $527,990 Active 22 DOM
29. 2026-06-23
    days on market $527,990 Active 20 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $527,990 Active 19 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $527,990 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $527,990 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $527,990 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $527,990 Active 13 DOM
35. 2026-06-14
    days on market $527,990 Active 11 DOM
36. 2026-06-13
    days on market $527,990 Active 10 DOM
37. 2026-06-10
    days on market $527,990 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-06-09
    days on market $527,990 Active 7 DOM
39. 2026-06-08
    days on market $527,990 Active 6 DOM
40. 2026-06-07
    days on market $527,990 Active 5 DOM
41. 2026-06-03
    remarks 695-char remark
42. 2026-06-03
    listed $527,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,073
• − Property taxes: −$8,856
• − Insurance: −$2,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,383
• − Management: −$3,383
• − Depreciation: −$17,176
• Taxable loss: −$26,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,990–$35,970 screening

A well-maintained, smart home with good curb appeal and a smart home technology package, ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home technology package — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Berthoud Elementary School C+ CO #143/966 Nat'l #9,502/41,679 Middle Turner Middle School D CO #56/270 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Berthoud High School D CO #115/381 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thompson School District R-2J
• NCES district ID: 0805400
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,040
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5313
• State rank: #28 of 86 in CO

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Berthoud

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #8538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berthoud, CO
• County: Larimer County · 415,361 people
• City population: 18,271
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 18,271
• Household income: $126,726
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.30%
• Current HPI: 260.0027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $527,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Holcombe)New construction (inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 957 Andrews Crest Dr, Berthoud, CO 80513

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (plan: Holcombe)Total living area approximately 2398