8204 SE Poppy St · Johnson City, OR 97267

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Other · 28 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful inside! GIANT double-wide like tip out living room - 19x16!!! Updated: vinyl windows, carpet, window coverings, exterior doors, dishwasher & refrigerator!!! Huge master suite! Awesome kitchen w/bay windowed dining rm/family rm! Relaxing 17x8 deck! ONLY $5,985!!!!!!!

Key facts

• Large cook's island
• Recessed lighting
• Oversized windows

Tags

• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• HONEY-COLORED SHAKER CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STAINLESS COUNTRY SINK
• LARGE COOK'S ISLAND
• RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size range listed as 0K to 2,999 SqFt; Unit dimensions approximately 26' by 48'
• HOA & community: Located in Johnson City park; Land lease in place (monthly lot rent of $970); Land lease expires May 31, 2028; Not a senior community; Community is close to shopping, freeways and public transit

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security features listed as unknown
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service and electric fuel; Cable internet
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential); Single-story (main-level living); Entry with minimal steps; No notable view
• Construction: 2026 construction year; T-111 siding; Composition roof; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cook island; Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom; Third bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling listed; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Laundry; Minimal steps for accessibility; Double-pane vinyl-framed windows; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#25 in OR, #623 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bilquist Elementary School (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #384 of 412 statewide, top 93%, 359 students, 69% FRL); Putnam High School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C-, #30 of 143 statewide, top 20%, 1,106 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $159k implies a 2557% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.87%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,212
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $55,039
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97267

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$1,795	$2.52	21d	8	0.49mi
16500 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,273	$2.26	7d	4	0.58mi
18181 Webster Rd Gladstone, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$2,395	$3.10	7d	11	0.94mi
17112 SE Jade Ct Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1514	$3,400	$2.25	1d	1	1.06mi
6593 SE Thiessen Rd Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	1791	$3,100	$1.73	1d	1	1.16mi
8106 SE Lake Rd Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,622	$2.29	3d	15	1.18mi
5832 Glen Echo Ave Unit 5830 Gladstone, OR	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,195	$1.64	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $159,000 Active
15. 2006-09-20
    soldstatus $5,985 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Beautiful inside! GIANT double-wide like tip out living room - 19x16!!! Updated: vinyl windows, carpet, window coverings, exterior doors, dishwasher & refrigerator!!! Huge master suite! Awesome kitchen w/bay windowed dining rm/family rm! Relaxing 17x8 deck! ONLY $5,985!!!!!!!

16. 2006-09-08
    historical 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Beautiful inside! GIANT double-wide like tip out living room - 19x16!!! Updated: vinyl windows, carpet, window coverings, exterior doors, dishwasher & refrigerator!!! Huge master suite! Awesome kitchen w/bay windowed dining rm/family rm! Relaxing 17x8 deck! ONLY $5,985!!!!!!!

17. 2006-03-30
    listed $5,985 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Beautiful inside! GIANT double-wide like tip out living room - 19x16!!! Updated: vinyl windows, carpet, window coverings, exterior doors, dishwasher & refrigerator!!! Huge master suite! Awesome kitchen w/bay windowed dining rm/family rm! Relaxing 17x8 deck! ONLY $5,985!!!!!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $6,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $7,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #623

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,311
• Household income: $87,418
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1226.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -526.38%
• Current HPI: 292.1818
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+2556.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $159,000 RMLS
• 2006-09-20 Sold (MLS) $5,985 RMLS
• 2006-09-08 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-03-30 Listed $5,985 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2018): $109 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.