9 Cedar Ln · New York Mills, NY 13417

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1966 8,050 sqft lot Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ONE owner home has been immaculately and carefully maintained. In the heart of NYM this little ray of sunshine is ready for some more TLC. Hardwoods under both downstairs bedrooms and living room. Sellers have added an extra half bathroom in the FINISHED Basement! Potential for a FORTH bedroom upstairs.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Newer furnace
• Central air

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEWER FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (previously built) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Partially finished full basement used for recreation
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($860/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in New York Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New York Mills Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #224 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $199k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $191,558 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,350
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Maple St	0.08mi	3/1.5	999 (-2%)	5mo	$180,000	$180	86
228 Fairway Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	9mo	$225,000	$220	74
26 Chestnut St	0.14mi	3/1.0	920 (-10%)	3mo	$142,900	$155	74
17 Wadas Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	936 (-9%)	9mo	$200,000	$214	66
93 Burrstone Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+3%)	8mo	$190,000	$180	64
30 Cedarbrook Cres	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-2%)	5mo	$244,400	$244	57
16 Vine Cir	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,036 (+1%)	10mo	$291,000	$281	56
29 Cedarbrook Cres	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	15mo	$221,500	$216	53
115 Fairway Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+11%)	17mo	$195,000	$171	46
218 Winchester Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	880 (-14%)	7mo	$208,500	$237	46
18 Cedarbrook Cres	0.72mi	3/1.5	925 (-10%)	5mo	$167,000	$181	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $113,017
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $329,363
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13417

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,781/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 1st St Yorkville, NY	3.0	1.0	888	$2,100	$2.36	43d	1	0.99mi
77 Clinton St New York Mills, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,450	$1.86	43d	7	1.14mi
1503 Fox Pl Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1119	$2,000	$1.79	43d	1	1.20mi
4770 Middle Settlement Rd Whitesboro, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,085	$2.88	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2019-11-06
   soldstatus $132,500
4. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $132,500 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   This ONE owner home has been immaculately and carefully maintained. In the heart of NYM this little ray of sunshine is ready for some more TLC. Hardwoods under both downstairs bedrooms and living room. Sellers have added an extra half bathroom in the FINISHED Basement! Potential for a FORTH bedroom upstairs.

5. 2019-06-19
   listed $139,900 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   This ONE owner home has been immaculately and carefully maintained. In the heart of NYM this little ray of sunshine is ready for some more TLC. Hardwoods under both downstairs bedrooms and living room. Sellers have added an extra half bathroom in the FINISHED Basement! Potential for a FORTH bedroom upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,781 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,781 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,781
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$577
• After-tax cash flow: $1,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New York Mills Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3620610
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $40,329
• Composite: 52.21/100
• National rank: #1605
• State rank: #224 of 590 in NY

Livability — New York Mills

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York Mills, NY
• City population: 3,012
• Population (ZIP): 3,012

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.74%
• Current HPI: 298.823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2019-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2019-11-05 Sold (MLS) $132,500 CNYIS
• 2019-06-19 Listed $139,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,781 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.