2929 N Macarthur Dr #173 · Tracy, CA 95376

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $189k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stylishly remodeled home. Step inside to an inviting layout with neutral and modern updates, refreshed interiors, and a bright and comfortable feel in every room. This community allows for easy living in a well-kept community that is very sought after by many. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dinning as well as commuter routs. Truly a wonderful bend of value and convenience!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1976
• Listed 105 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 2929 N MacArthur Dr #173, Tracy, CA 95376; Directions: From 205 exit on MacArthur head south; park is to the right
• HOA & community: No homeowner association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source excluded from output)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: 220 volts in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Built in 1976
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufacturer: SkyLine; Make/Model: Buddy
• Exterior features: Backyard; Court lot; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen island; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living area; Great room; Formal dining area; Island kitchen with stone counters; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Indoor laundry (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.6% in Tracy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#496 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tracy Joint Unified (suburban): math 22% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #305 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,954 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.47%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2929 N Macarthur Dr #92	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-4%)	19mo	$170,000	$160	73
2929 N Macarthur #42	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	16mo	$165,000	$138	71
2929 N Macarthur Dr #19	0.01mi	3/2.0	990 (-10%)	15mo	$170,000	$172	71
2929 N Macarthur Dr #51	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	956 (-13%)	16mo	$200,000	$209	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,288
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $54,945
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95376

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 E Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	963	$2,200	$2.28	2d	1	0.32mi
80 Portola Way Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,995	$1.90	2d	1	0.52mi
3255 Holly Dr Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$2,200	$2.26	2d	1	0.61mi
115 E Emerson Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1112	$2,475	$2.23	21d	1	0.77mi
3440 Buthmann Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,550	$2.39	18d	1	0.85mi
2921 Alene Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,400	$2.21	23d	1	0.93mi
498 Hintz Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,420	$2.23	2d	1	0.93mi
2800 N Tracy Blvd Tracy, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,495	$3.03	2d	9	0.99mi
2910 N Tracy Blvd Unit 44 Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	14d	1	1.02mi
1720 Bessie Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,475	$2.29	2d	1	1.14mi
1650 Bessie Ave Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,100	$2.62	10d	1	1.18mi
950 W Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,685	$3.27	2d	15	1.25mi
2680 Bonifacio Dr Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$3,000	$2.25	3d	1	1.36mi
1145 Parker Ave Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,095	$2.99	2d	1	1.43mi
1143 Parker Ave Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,095	$2.99	2d	1	1.43mi
1143 Wall St Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	995	$2,600	$2.61	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,950 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,950 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,950 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,950 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $199,950 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,950 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,950 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,950 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,950 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,950 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,950 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,950 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,950 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,950 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,950 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable income: $4,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $6,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tracy Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600047
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $73,095
• Composite: 27.94/100
• National rank: #6862
• State rank: #305 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tracy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #16717

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracy, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 133,642
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,488
• Household income: $102,555
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.54%
• Current HPI: 255.8813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B