146 Cottonwood Cv · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$194,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1994 0.37 ac lot $204/sqft · 8% above area Est $205k · 5% under $182/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this adorable home located in Holly Lake Ranch. Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers a perfect blend of comfort and function. The home features hardwood floors throughout, a cozy fireplace, and abundant natural light. Enjoy the tranquility of the spacious covered front porch which is perfect for front porch rocking. Recent updates include exterior paint, new appliances, new master shower and water heater. Community Amenities include an 18-hole golf course, lakes for fishing and water sports, three community swimming pools, a fitness center, and tennis and pickleball courts. This is a unique opportunity to experience resort-style living every day. Whether you're seeking relaxation or looking for an active lifestyle, this property has it all. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of paradise in Holly Lake Ranch.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• DINING PORCH
• PRIVATE DECK
• NEWLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee; Monthly HOA fee: $182.68; Gated community with pool and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Located on a lake (Greenbriar Lake); Cul-de-sac lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Fireplace blower fan
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,488 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,918
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -5.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
746 Wildwood Trl	0.14mi	2/2.0	986 (+4%)	3mo	$169,000	$171	81
142 Primrose Cv	0.33mi	2/2.0	986 (+4%)	1mo	$134,000	$136	74
168 Knollwood Ln	0.32mi	2/2.0	908 (-5%)	6mo	$159,000	$175	68
132 Wild Rose Knl	0.50mi	2/2.0	986 (+4%)	3mo	$165,000	$167	64
171 Primrose Cv	0.37mi	2/1.0	812 (-15%)	17mo	$185,000	$228	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,781
• Equity at exit: $88,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $41,534
• Equity at exit: $136,886

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,473/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $136,488

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $194,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $194,000 Active 1939-char remark
17. 2024-05-09
    soldstatus
18. 2024-05-08
    soldstatus Closed 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Welcome to this adorable home located in Holly Lake Ranch. Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers a perfect blend of comfort and function. The home features hardwood floors throughout, a cozy fireplace, and abundant natural light. Enjoy the tranquility of the spacious covered front porch which is perfect for front porch rocking. Recent updates include exterior paint, new appliances, new master shower and water heater. Community Amenities include an 18-hole golf course, lakes for fishing and water sports, three community swimming pools, a fitness center, and tennis and pickleball courts. This is a unique opportunity to experience resort-style living every day. Whether you're seeking relaxation or looking for an active lifestyle, this property has it all. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of paradise in Holly Lake Ranch.

19. 2024-04-23
    historical 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Welcome to this adorable home located in Holly Lake Ranch. Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers a perfect blend of comfort and function. The home features hardwood floors throughout, a cozy fireplace, and abundant natural light. Enjoy the tranquility of the spacious covered front porch which is perfect for front porch rocking. Recent updates include exterior paint, new appliances, new master shower and water heater. Community Amenities include an 18-hole golf course, lakes for fishing and water sports, three community swimming pools, a fitness center, and tennis and pickleball courts. This is a unique opportunity to experience resort-style living every day. Whether you're seeking relaxation or looking for an active lifestyle, this property has it all. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of paradise in Holly Lake Ranch.

20. 2024-04-19
    listed $159,999 Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Welcome to this adorable home located in Holly Lake Ranch. Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers a perfect blend of comfort and function. The home features hardwood floors throughout, a cozy fireplace, and abundant natural light. Enjoy the tranquility of the spacious covered front porch which is perfect for front porch rocking. Recent updates include exterior paint, new appliances, new master shower and water heater. Community Amenities include an 18-hole golf course, lakes for fishing and water sports, three community swimming pools, a fitness center, and tennis and pickleball courts. This is a unique opportunity to experience resort-style living every day. Whether you're seeking relaxation or looking for an active lifestyle, this property has it all. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of paradise in Holly Lake Ranch.

21. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus
22. 2022-10-17
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Adorable home in resort community on quiet cul-de-sac. Hardwood floors throughout, wood-burning stove in living. Master bath is spacious with jet tub and large walk-in closet. Enclosed sunroom could be second living room or second dining. Covered front porch provides even more outdoor space to enjoy the natural beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Gated community with 24-hour on-site security, 18 hole golf course, lakes, swimming pools, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball, and more.

23. 2022-09-09
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Adorable home in resort community on quiet cul-de-sac. Hardwood floors throughout, wood-burning stove in living. Master bath is spacious with jet tub and large walk-in closet. Enclosed sunroom could be second living room or second dining. Covered front porch provides even more outdoor space to enjoy the natural beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Gated community with 24-hour on-site security, 18 hole golf course, lakes, swimming pools, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball, and more.

24. 2022-07-25
    price $139,900

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Adorable home in resort community on quiet cul-de-sac. Hardwood floors throughout, wood-burning stove in living. Master bath is spacious with jet tub and large walk-in closet. Enclosed sunroom could be second living room or second dining. Covered front porch provides even more outdoor space to enjoy the natural beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Gated community with 24-hour on-site security, 18 hole golf course, lakes, swimming pools, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball, and more.

25. 2022-05-31
    listed $170,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Adorable home in resort community on quiet cul-de-sac. Hardwood floors throughout, wood-burning stove in living. Master bath is spacious with jet tub and large walk-in closet. Enclosed sunroom could be second living room or second dining. Covered front porch provides even more outdoor space to enjoy the natural beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Gated community with 24-hour on-site security, 18 hole golf course, lakes, swimming pools, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball, and more.

26. 2018-05-30
    soldstatus
27. 2018-05-29
    soldstatus
28. 2018-04-10
    listed $69,500
29. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus
30. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus
31. 2015-12-21
    listed $84,000
32. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 43.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,473
• − Insurance: −$1,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$7,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,747
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+131.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $194,000 GTAR
• 2024-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-08 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2024-04-23 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-04-19 Listed $159,999 GTAR
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-09-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2018-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-29 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2018-04-10 Listed $69,500 GTAR
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-12 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2015-12-21 Listed $84,000 GTAR
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,473 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.