83626 Carey Rd · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$114,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1959 5.00 ac lot $80/sqft · 36% below area Est $179k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

Key facts

• Privacy
• 5 acre lot
• Wide open views

Tags

• 5 ACRE LOT
• WIDE OPEN VIEWS
• AMPLE ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• ADDITIONAL STRUCTURES
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.56%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,528
• List price: $114,000
• Delta: -36.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $20,613
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $75,807
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    soldstatus $80,000
16. 2026-01-29
    price $114,000 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

17. 2026-01-13
    status Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

18. 2026-01-08
    historical Active Under Contract 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

19. 2025-11-24
    status Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

20. 2025-11-24
    historical Active Under Contract 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

21. 2025-11-21
    listed $120,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Discover the potential of 83626 Carey Rd in Twentynine Palms, a true investor special set on an expansive 5-acre lot with endless possibilities. This property is perfect for new or experienced rehabbers looking for their next project in the high desert. Surrounded by wide-open views and the peaceful serenity of rural living, the home offers a rare opportunity to transform a blank canvas into a profitable investment or a personalized desert retreat. With its generous land size, the property provides ample room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional structures, making it an ideal choice for those with a creative vision. Whether you're aiming to renovate and resell, develop into a vacation getaway, or build your long-term portfolio, this property has the space, privacy, and potential to bring your plans to life.

22. 2019-11-06
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed Sale 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to your very own active and successful AIRBNB retreat. This is a great turnkey opportunity for an investor or individual who wants to have their own AIRBNB retreat. This home is located near the famous Palms Restaurant on Amboy Rd in Wonder Valley. This is a spacious open floor plan home with 2 bedrooms, open living room/kitchen, large bathroom and an enclosed patio. Functioning well, wonderful panoramic views and approx 1/2 acre of the 5 acre lot is fenced in. 2 car detached garage and separate shed/storage. Good dirt road access.

23. 2019-11-06
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to your very own active and successful AIRBNB retreat. This is a great turnkey opportunity for an investor or individual who wants to have their own AIRBNB retreat. This home is located near the famous Palms Restaurant on Amboy Rd in Wonder Valley. This is a spacious open floor plan home with 2 bedrooms, open living room/kitchen, large bathroom and an enclosed patio. Functioning well, wonderful panoramic views and approx 1/2 acre of the 5 acre lot is fenced in. 2 car detached garage and separate shed/storage. Good dirt road access.

24. 2019-10-15
    status Pending Sale 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to your very own active and successful AIRBNB retreat. This is a great turnkey opportunity for an investor or individual who wants to have their own AIRBNB retreat. This home is located near the famous Palms Restaurant on Amboy Rd in Wonder Valley. This is a spacious open floor plan home with 2 bedrooms, open living room/kitchen, large bathroom and an enclosed patio. Functioning well, wonderful panoramic views and approx 1/2 acre of the 5 acre lot is fenced in. 2 car detached garage and separate shed/storage. Good dirt road access.

25. 2019-10-06
    price $120,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to your very own active and successful AIRBNB retreat. This is a great turnkey opportunity for an investor or individual who wants to have their own AIRBNB retreat. This home is located near the famous Palms Restaurant on Amboy Rd in Wonder Valley. This is a spacious open floor plan home with 2 bedrooms, open living room/kitchen, large bathroom and an enclosed patio. Functioning well, wonderful panoramic views and approx 1/2 acre of the 5 acre lot is fenced in. 2 car detached garage and separate shed/storage. Good dirt road access.

26. 2019-09-27
    listed $110,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to your very own active and successful AIRBNB retreat. This is a great turnkey opportunity for an investor or individual who wants to have their own AIRBNB retreat. This home is located near the famous Palms Restaurant on Amboy Rd in Wonder Valley. This is a spacious open floor plan home with 2 bedrooms, open living room/kitchen, large bathroom and an enclosed patio. Functioning well, wonderful panoramic views and approx 1/2 acre of the 5 acre lot is fenced in. 2 car detached garage and separate shed/storage. Good dirt road access.

27. 2015-02-12
    historical
28. 2015-02-11
    soldstatus $30,330 Closed
29. 2014-12-15
    status Backup Offers Accepted
30. 2014-11-25
    status Pending
31. 2014-09-06
    listed $50,000 Active
32. 1991-07-31
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $5,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $5,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $114,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-24 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-06 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2019-10-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-10-06 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-27 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2015-02-12 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2015-02-11 Sold (MLS) $30,330 GPSMLS
• 2014-12-15 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2014-11-25 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2014-09-06 Listed $50,000 GPSMLS
• 1991-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,648 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.