6643 Westchester Dr NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1990 4,260 sqft lot $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

11 miles south of I-4 close to shopping and churches. Disney theme parks and airport 30 min. 3 miles to winter haven. Just reduced to $69,900 a steal and super home has a lake view from fl. room New air conditioner july 2010 a one owner home. great place to call home, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard, good fishing lake. Bingo, weekly coffee, pot luck dinners. Afforadable place to live, just reduced $10,000 to $69.900

Key facts

• Soft-close cabinetry
• New ac system
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• PULL-OUT DRAWERS
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total living area reported as 1,456 sq ft; Lot dimensions about 51 x 82 (approximately 0.1 acres, paved road)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Charlotte Van Beek) with required approval; Monthly HOA approximately $45.83 ($550 annually); HOA covers common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance and recreational facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities and shuffleboard court; Senior community; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Community mailbox; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Single-story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Lake view (Lake Henry); Boat port and private boat ramp access listed as water extras

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Window treatments; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $175k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,243 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,298
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,419
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$45
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $183	+0% $133	+5% $84	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $72	+0% $133	+5% $194	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $178	base $133	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	16d	1	0.74mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	5d	1	0.79mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	25d	1	0.99mi
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	25d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $174,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2011-04-28
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus $65,000 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    11 miles south of I-4 close to shopping and churches. Disney theme parks and airport 30 min. 3 miles to winter haven. Just reduced to $69,900 a steal and super home has a lake view from fl. room New air conditioner july 2010 a one owner home. great place to call home, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard, good fishing lake. Bingo, weekly coffee, pot luck dinners. Afforadable place to live, just reduced $10,000 to $69.900

19. 2010-09-15
    listed $69,900 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    11 miles south of I-4 close to shopping and churches. Disney theme parks and airport 30 min. 3 miles to winter haven. Just reduced to $69,900 a steal and super home has a lake view from fl. room New air conditioner july 2010 a one owner home. great place to call home, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard, good fishing lake. Bingo, weekly coffee, pot luck dinners. Afforadable place to live, just reduced $10,000 to $69.900

20. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$848/yr (+$71/mo · 140.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1581.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-15 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.