348 Walnut St · Jewett, TX 75838

$65,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1950 0.34 ac lot $41/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! This property offers a fantastic opportunity for a hands-on buyer looking to create their ideal home. Located in a quiet, non-restricted area, this house is a true fixer-upper ready for a complete renovation. 3-4 bedrooms. Key Features: Open Lot, No restrictions, great potential. AS-IS.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 206 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,223 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, crime F.
• Teague ISD (town): math 43% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #289 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.57%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,424
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -59.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $46,850
• Equity at exit: $30,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $112,207
• Equity at exit: $47,059

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75838

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2025-11-24
    listed $65,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! This property offers a fantastic opportunity for a hands-on buyer looking to create their ideal home. Located in a quiet, non-restricted area, this house is a true fixer-upper ready for a complete renovation. 3-4 bedrooms. Key Features: Open Lot, No restrictions, great potential. AS-IS.

17. 2024-11-01
    soldstatus
18. 2020-05-18
    soldstatus
19. 2013-05-06
    soldstatus
20. 2008-05-02
    soldstatus
21. 2008-05-02
    soldstatus
22. 2006-07-14
    soldstatus
23. 1999-05-10
    soldstatus
24. 1986-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 275.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $5,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Teague ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842300
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,009
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4419
• State rank: #289 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jewett

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1223
• US rank: #21348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 283

Population outlook (Freestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,591 people
• By 2030: 19,470 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 19,111 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 18,700 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 17,586 · -10.2%
• By 2100: 14,933 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Freestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Current HPI: 147.8785
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · -74.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.