623 N Willow Dr · Marion, IN 46952

$59,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1962 7,788 sqft lot $58/sqft · 29% below area Est $83k · 29% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,788 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer connected; Solid waste service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level (single story)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Lot under 1/4 acre (approximately 0.18 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Five main-level rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($568/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 8.7% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#337 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marion Community Schools (town): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #277 of 301 in IN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #308 of 369 statewide, top 84%, 1,050 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 52 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.42%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,223
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -29.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 N Willow Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,025 (0%)	0mo	$55,000	$54	100
211 W Wharton Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	12mo	$143,000	$138	67
535 E Bradford St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+1%)	11mo	$137,900	$133	64
508 W Kem Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+5%)	10mo	$156,000	$145	63
610 W Buckingham Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-6%)	9mo	$125,000	$130	62
526 E Marshall St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-2%)	7mo	$128,000	$127	59
323 W Highland Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+12%)	3mo	$133,797	$116	55
707 Crestview Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (-6%)	6mo	$108,500	$113	53
1212 N Quarry Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (-5%)	13mo	$134,000	$138	53
116 E Stephenson St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (+6%)	4mo	$93,500	$86	52
626 E Swayzee St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+3%)	4mo	$109,000	$103	51
1026 N Branson St	0.39mi	3/1.0	940 (-8%)	17mo	$48,000	$51	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-6,264
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-437
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46952

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 E Sherman St Marion, IN	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,050	$0.97	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 764-char remark
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $59,000 Active 764-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$5,414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable loss: −$70
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1806390
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,415
• Composite: 17.13/100
• National rank: #9115
• State rank: #277 of 301 in IN

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #13006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, IN
• County: Grant County · 41,561 people
• City population: 41,561
• Metro: Marion, IN
• Population (ZIP): 18,189
• Household income: $52,880
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,394 people
• By 2030: 62,145 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 57,252 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 52,968 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 45,986 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 39,400 · -38.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.2% · R 70.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.69%
• Current HPI: 180.1174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $59,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $48 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.