1617 E Road Three · Lake Koshkonong, WI 53534

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1961 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or weekend getaway just a few blocks from Lake Koshkonong. Home features 2 beds, 1 bath, deck, eat-in kitchen and full basement ready for your rec room. Bring your update ideas and build equity to make this house your home

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($298/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.7% in Lake Koshkonong — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#521 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Edgerton School District (town): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #202 of 342 in WI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgerton Community Elementary (math 39% / reading 30%, grade F, #610 of 1,041 statewide, top 63%, 844 students, 32% FRL); Edgerton Middle (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #144 of 383 statewide, top 39%, 424 students, 37% FRL); Edgerton High (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #287 of 483 statewide, top 71%, 543 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 629 units permitted in Rock County in 2024 (263 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rock County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $140k implies a 441% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,715 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,138
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,511
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53534

• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,066/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $64	+0% $25	+5% $-15	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-20	+0% $25	+5% $70	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $60	base $25	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 467-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$63/mo · 71.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,066
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$508
• After-tax cash flow: $807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edgerton School District
• NCES district ID: 5504110
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $59,472
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5808
• State rank: #202 of 342 in WI

Livability — Lake Koshkonong

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #13116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rock County · 135,428 people
• Metro: Janesville-Beloit, WI
• Population (ZIP): 12,241
• Household income: $89,045
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Rock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,403 people
• By 2030: 162,815 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,655 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 151,235 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 131,901 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 108,665 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Rock

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.3) · D 52.9% · R 45.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: 7.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.3 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+23.2 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.16%
• Current HPI: 256.4231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Janesville-Beloit, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+131.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $140,000 SCWMLS
• 2013-01-26 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2013-01-26 Listed $29,900 METROMLS
• 2010-10-26 Sold (MLS) $25,900 METROMLS
• 2001-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,066 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.