106-9 Timberlake Ter #9 · Stephens City, VA 22655

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · Condo public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1992 $220/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 3rd floor penthouse unit with vaulted ceilings and skylights, and beautiful view from patio balcony. Newer paint and wood laminate flooring in main living areas. Kitchen has newer cherry stained kitchen cabinets, tiled floors and GRANITE. Updated hall bath with new vanity and tile floors. Washer/dryer convey. Move in ready and great investment for first time buyer or rental.

Key facts

• $220 HOA
• Built 1992
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by a property manager; Pets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Condo fee $220 per month; Professional off-site association management; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium unit in a garden-style building (1–4 floors); Unit/flat; Entry on level 3; Very good condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Balcony; Play area on the grounds; Sidewalks; Street lighting; Common grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Single oven; Electric range/stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Family room off the kitchen; Traditional floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-293/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Stephens City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#198 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orchard View Elementary (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 461 students, 41% FRL); Admiral Richard E. Byrd Middle (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 804 students, 34% FRL); Sherando High (math 72% / reading 89%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,666 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,958 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,157
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,168
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22655

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $215,689

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $38	+0% $-24	+5% $-87	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-101	+0% $-24	+5% $52	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $32	base $-24	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $220,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-22
    listed $229,000 Active
20. 2026-05-18
    historical $229,000
21. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $206,210
22. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus $163,000
23. 2017-07-05
    soldstatus $117,900
24. 2017-06-30
    soldstatus $117,900 Sold 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Very nice 3rd floor penthouse unit with vaulted ceilings and skylights, and beautiful view from patio balcony. Newer paint and wood laminate flooring in main living areas. Kitchen has newer cherry stained kitchen cabinets, tiled floors and GRANITE. Updated hall bath with new vanity and tile floors. Washer/dryer convey. Move in ready and great investment for first time buyer or rental.

25. 2017-05-24
    status Contract 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Very nice 3rd floor penthouse unit with vaulted ceilings and skylights, and beautiful view from patio balcony. Newer paint and wood laminate flooring in main living areas. Kitchen has newer cherry stained kitchen cabinets, tiled floors and GRANITE. Updated hall bath with new vanity and tile floors. Washer/dryer convey. Move in ready and great investment for first time buyer or rental.

26. 2017-05-16
    listed $117,900 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Very nice 3rd floor penthouse unit with vaulted ceilings and skylights, and beautiful view from patio balcony. Newer paint and wood laminate flooring in main living areas. Kitchen has newer cherry stained kitchen cabinets, tiled floors and GRANITE. Updated hall bath with new vanity and tile floors. Washer/dryer convey. Move in ready and great investment for first time buyer or rental.

27. 2012-08-13
    soldstatus $91,000
28. 2012-08-10
    soldstatus $91,000 Sold 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

29. 2012-05-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out) 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

30. 2012-04-30
    status Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

31. 2012-04-08
    historical Expired 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

32. 2012-03-08
    status Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

33. 2012-03-08
    historical Expired 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

34. 2011-09-01
    price $99,500 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

35. 2011-08-08
    status Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

36. 2011-08-08
    historical Expired 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

37. 2011-06-10
    listed $104,900 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    FABULOUS THIRD FLOOR CONDO IN STEPHENS CITY!!FEATURES INCLUDE SKYLIGHTS, 2 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, BALCONY, ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES CONVEY. THIS UNIT SHOWS VERY WELL!!!

38. 2010-12-09
    historical Expired
39. 2010-09-10
    listed Active
40. 2010-05-20
    historical
41. 2010-05-19
    soldstatus $93,000 Sold
42. 2010-04-29
    soldstatus $93,000
43. 2010-02-03
    listed $105,000 Active
44. 1999-05-28
    soldstatus $60,500
45. 1999-04-16
    historical
46. 1999-03-08
    listed $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$803/yr (+$67/mo · 80.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$963
• After-tax cash flow: $671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stephens City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #6143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• City population: 22,687
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,687
• Household income: $109,169
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.28%
• Current HPI: 211.6611
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+266.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $206,210 Public Records
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) $117,900 MRIS
• 2017-05-24 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-05-16 Listed $117,900 MRIS
• 2012-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-10 Sold (MLS) $91,000 MRIS
• 2012-05-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-04-30 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-04-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-03-08 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-03-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-09-01 Price Changed $99,500 MRIS
• 2011-08-08 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-08-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-06-10 Listed $104,900 MRIS
• 2010-12-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-09-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-05-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-05-19 Sold (MLS) $93,000 MRIS
• 2010-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-03 Listed $105,000 MRIS
• 1999-05-28 Sold (MLS) $60,500 MRIS
• 1999-04-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-03-08 Listed $62,500 MRIS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.