9914 Waldens Pond Ct · Houston, TX 77044

$238,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 329 Days on market

Built 2014 4,369 sqft lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

View this 3 bedroom, 3 full bath, two-story home near the beltway and HWY 90. Open floor plan, home boasts lots of natural light. An open concept kitchen is neighbored with a dining room and a living room that comes with a fireplace. A space that is welcoming to family gatherings. Schedule your showing today and come see a house ready to be a home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Open concept kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Early Childhood Academy (589 students, 87% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,888 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,362
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9902 Waldens Pond Ct	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,127 (0%)	9mo	$243,990	$115	88
9523 Brandon Rock Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,088 (-2%)	4mo	$235,000	$113	75
10011 Orchid Spring Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (-8%)	4mo	$250,000	$128	71
10023 Yanet Grove Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,960 (-8%)	2mo	$270,000	$138	71
9511 Alex Springs Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,270 (+7%)	1mo	$254,900	$112	70
9826 Orchid Spring Ln	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,960 (-8%)	6mo	$244,900	$125	67
10126 Churchill Oaks Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,372 (+12%)	4mo	$265,000	$112	66
10002 Sally Grove Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,222 (+4%)	8mo	$269,999	$122	65
13138 Cherryglade Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+3%)	8mo	$243,500	$111	58
13230 Montane Manor Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,876 (-12%)	6mo	$234,500	$125	46
9127 Georgio Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+6%)	11mo	$290,000	$128	39
12838 Windy Summer Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,829 (-14%)	11mo	$255,000	$139	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,544
• Equity at exit: $50,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,009
• Equity at exit: $47,918

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,306/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $201,888

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-137	+0% $-204	+5% $-272	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-294	+0% $-204	+5% $-115	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-144	base $-204	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	23d	1	0.16mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.49mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	0.52mi
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	46d	1	0.69mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	4d	1	0.74mi
13030 Sandhill Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2402	$2,120	$0.88	3d	1	0.84mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	26d	1	0.87mi
13150 Cutler Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2264	$2,195	$0.97	7d	1	0.95mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	7d	1	1.06mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.31mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	14d	1	1.31mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 315 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 311 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 310 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 309 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 308 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $238,000 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    View this 3 bedroom, 3 full bath, two-story home near the beltway and HWY 90. Open floor plan, home boasts lots of natural light. An open concept kitchen is neighbored with a dining room and a living room that comes with a fireplace. A space that is welcoming to family gatherings. Schedule your showing today and come see a house ready to be a home.

16. 2025-07-27
    listed $240,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    View this 3 bedroom, 3 full bath, two-story home near the beltway and HWY 90. Open floor plan, home boasts lots of natural light. An open concept kitchen is neighbored with a dining room and a living room that comes with a fireplace. A space that is welcoming to family gatherings. Schedule your showing today and come see a house ready to be a home.

17. 2025-07-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    View this 3 bedroom, 3 full bath, two-story home near the beltway and HWY 90. Open floor plan, home boasts lots of natural light. An open concept kitchen is neighbored with a dining room and a living room that comes with a fireplace. A space that is welcoming to family gatherings. Schedule your showing today and come see a house ready to be a home.

18. 2025-06-26
    listed $255,000 Active
19. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus
20. 2018-09-21
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2018-08-15
    status Pending
22. 2018-07-27
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,306 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,306 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$7,306
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$6,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2018-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-27 Listed $169,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,306 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.