38288 Highway 299 E · Johnson Park, CA 96013

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Manufactured home $81/sqft · 12% above area Est $72k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can buy ? OWN WILL CARRY Small down cheap payment This older mobile home site on a 6970 ft^2 lot and is 1000 ft^2 home

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); On-street parking
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Flat roof; United States model
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level topography; Gravel road access; Highway frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Interior features: Free-standing fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burney Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 345 students, 65% FRL); Burney Junior-Senior High (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #788 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 238 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.15%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,920
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 23.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21630 S Cottonwood St. St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+9%)	15mo	$153,000	$128	52
21590 Viola St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	8mo	$73,000	$61	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $5,589
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $30,546
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96013

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $391/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $340	+0% $315	+5% $290	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $272	+0% $315	+5% $357	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $337	base $315	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $89,000 Active 135-char remark
20. 2026-01-14
    price $80,000
21. 2025-12-08
    price $85,000
22. 2025-11-19
    price $98,900
23. 2025-10-28
    listed $99,000 Active
24. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $89,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Why rent when you can buy ? OWN WILL CARRY Small down cheap payment This older mobile home site on a 6970 ft^2 lot and is 1000 ft^2 home

25. 2023-08-07
    soldstatus $86,000
26. 2023-07-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Why rent when you can buy ? OWN WILL CARRY Small down cheap payment This older mobile home site on a 6970 ft^2 lot and is 1000 ft^2 home

27. 2023-02-02
    listed $92,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Why rent when you can buy ? OWN WILL CARRY Small down cheap payment This older mobile home site on a 6970 ft^2 lot and is 1000 ft^2 home

28. 2020-07-21
    soldstatus $86,900
29. 2020-07-17
    soldstatus $87,000
30. 2020-06-27
    listed $86,900
31. 2020-06-25
    soldstatus $30,000
32. 2020-03-11
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $391 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 72.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$391
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,449
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$588
• After-tax cash flow: $3,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Johnson Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,929

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.44%
• Current HPI: 165.4515
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $89,000 SAOR
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $80,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $85,000 SAOR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $98,900 SAOR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $99,000 SAOR
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) $89,000 SAOR
• 2023-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-17 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-02-02 Listed $92,500 SAOR
• 2020-07-21 Sold (MLS) $86,900 SAOR
• 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-27 Listed $86,900 SAOR
• 2020-06-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 SAOR
• 2020-03-11 Listed $35,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $391 · +101.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.