4212 Larkwood Ave · Louisville, KY 40212

$159,994

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1929 5,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property in Louisville's History Shawnee neighborhood! It's a great investment opportunity or live-in fixer upper with strong long-term potential. It features a large, spacious yard for outdoor use, expansion, or future improvements, and is conveniently located near Shawnee Golf Course, nearby parks, and the new West Louisville hospital, making it appealing for both investors and future occupants. Property is sold as-is.

Key facts

• Inviting curb appeal
• Cozy living room
• Updated bungalow

Tags

• UPDATED BUNGALOW
• INVITING CURB APPEAL
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CHARMING FIREPLACE
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($523/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,758 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,627
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4149 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,327 (+5%)	3mo	$88,000	$66	83
622 S 42nd St	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,267 (0%)	3mo	$100,000	$79	77
237 Glendora Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+13%)	2mo	$186,250	$130	67
220 N 39th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-2%)	4mo	$145,000	$117	62
431 Amy Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,223 (-4%)	5mo	$80,000	$65	60
429 N 44th St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,268 (+0%)	1mo	$112,000	$88	59
238 S 41st St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	8mo	$119,900	$83	58
356 N 43rd St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-5%)	1mo	$95,000	$79	48
127 N 39th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (-6%)	8mo	$80,000	$67	47
100 Boston Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-15%)	9mo	$35,000	$32	43
431 N 44th St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (+7%)	5mo	$109,994	$81	43
125 N 46th St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (-13%)	6mo	$95,000	$86	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $86,685
• Equity at exit: $144,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $247,173
• Equity at exit: $310,833

Cash invested: $44,798 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $159,994

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $89	+0% $44	+5% $-2	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $-8	+0% $44	+5% $95	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $84	base $44	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,998
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	3d	1	0.06mi
302 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	984	$1,025	$1.04	17d	1	0.16mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	20d	1	0.21mi
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	13d	1	0.33mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	21d	1	0.40mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	17d	1	0.43mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	3d	1	0.44mi
663 S 43rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1736	$1,250	$0.72	25d	1	0.47mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.47mi
110 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	924	$1,080	$1.17	25d	1	0.50mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	17d	1	0.50mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	4d	1	0.51mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	4d	1	0.57mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	4d	1	0.62mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.63mi
714 S 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	17d	1	0.66mi
715 S 41st St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	11d	1	0.66mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	0.67mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	4d	1	0.69mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.74mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	21d	1	0.75mi
803 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1165	$1,449	$1.24	11d	1	0.75mi
836 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	20d	1	0.83mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	4d	1	0.89mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	0.99mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	1.00mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	1.05mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	1.08mi
4221 Sunset Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,199	$1.12	25d	1	1.14mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	13d	1	1.17mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	4d	1	1.23mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	22d	1	1.29mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	4d	1	1.32mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	25d	1	1.35mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	17d	1	1.39mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	25d	1	1.41mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	25d	1	1.41mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	18d	1	1.41mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	1.42mi
1145 Louis Coleman Jr Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	913	$875	$0.96	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $159,994
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $159,999 Active
4. 2025-12-15
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   This property in Louisville's History Shawnee neighborhood! It's a great investment opportunity or live-in fixer upper with strong long-term potential. It features a large, spacious yard for outdoor use, expansion, or future improvements, and is conveniently located near Shawnee Golf Course, nearby parks, and the new West Louisville hospital, making it appealing for both investors and future occupants. Property is sold as-is.

5. 2025-12-03
   status Pending 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   This property in Louisville's History Shawnee neighborhood! It's a great investment opportunity or live-in fixer upper with strong long-term potential. It features a large, spacious yard for outdoor use, expansion, or future improvements, and is conveniently located near Shawnee Golf Course, nearby parks, and the new West Louisville hospital, making it appealing for both investors and future occupants. Property is sold as-is.

6. 2025-11-26
   listed $85,000 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   This property in Louisville's History Shawnee neighborhood! It's a great investment opportunity or live-in fixer upper with strong long-term potential. It features a large, spacious yard for outdoor use, expansion, or future improvements, and is conveniently located near Shawnee Golf Course, nearby parks, and the new West Louisville hospital, making it appealing for both investors and future occupants. Property is sold as-is.

7. 2025-11-17
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 2006-10-26
   soldstatus $62,500
9. 2005-04-01
   historical
10. 2004-12-12
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable loss: −$2,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+142.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $159,994 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $159,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-03 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2004-12-12 Listed $65,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $910 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.