803 Tomahawk Trl · Shawneeland, VA 22602

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $264k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

Key facts

• Front and rear decks
• Open floorplan
• Private beach access

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• APPROXIMATELY .25-ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric service
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Single-story living (main-level bedrooms); Located on a lake (Crystal Lake)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade structure; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Private beach access; Deck(s); Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (one is an entry-level bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Combination kitchen and living area; Ceiling fans; Wood floors; Paneled and drywall walls
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main-floor laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Shawneeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#359 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Indian Hollow Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 393 students, 49% FRL); Frederick County Middle (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C, #225 of 342 statewide, top 66%, 751 students, 40% FRL); James Wood High (math 63% / reading 82%, grade B+, #131 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,437 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $250k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $170,560 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,000
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Tomahawk Trl	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (0%)	1mo	$246,000	$256	92
111 Genesee Trl	0.10mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	0mo	$240,000	$260	89
109 Gannentaha Trl	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	23mo	$277,500	$275	66
111 Dakota Trl	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,029 (+7%)	8mo	$290,000	$282	64
117 Buffalo Trl	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	14mo	$290,000	$279	53
236 Doe Trl	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	861 (-10%)	11mo	$159,900	$186	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,821
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,375
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22602

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $224,504

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-74	+0% $-144	+5% $-215	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-212	+0% $-144	+5% $-77	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-81	base $-144	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-15
   price $250,000
4. 2026-01-18
   listed $260,000 Active
5. 2015-06-11
   soldstatus $92,700 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

6. 2015-06-11
   soldstatus $92,700 Sold 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

7. 2015-02-25
   status Contract 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

8. 2015-02-25
   historical 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

9. 2015-02-12
   price $99,900 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

10. 2015-01-14
    price $109,900 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

11. 2014-12-13
    listed $124,000 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

12. 2014-12-13
    listed $99,900 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Cozy ranch home in Winchester, VA featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Bathrooms. This home includes hardwoods, wood burning fireplace and open living space. This home has fresh paint and is move-in ready!

13. 2007-03-15
    soldstatus $151,250
14. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus $98,000
15. 2006-01-01
    soldstatus $98,000
16. 2005-12-28
    historical
17. 2005-12-20
    listed $95,000
18. 2003-06-25
    historical
19. 2003-04-21
    listed
20. 2003-04-09
    historical
21. 2003-01-06
    listed
22. 2002-12-23
    soldstatus $43,000
23. 2002-10-25
    historical
24. 2002-10-21
    listed $43,000
25. 1999-07-28
    soldstatus $55,000
26. 1999-07-22
    historical
27. 1999-07-20
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,131/yr (+$94/mo · 123.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shawneeland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #14402

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawneeland, VA
• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 32,840
• Household income: $101,398
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 294.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.39%
• Current HPI: 209.8801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.55%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+405.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-06-11 Sold (MLS) $92,700 MRIS
• 2015-06-11 Sold (MLS) $92,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-12 Price Changed $99,900 MRIS
• 2015-01-14 Price Changed $109,900 MRIS
• 2014-12-13 Listed $124,000 MRIS
• 2014-12-13 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $151,250 Public Records
• 2006-02-07 Sold (MLS) $98,000 MRIS
• 2006-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-12-20 Listed $95,000 MRIS
• 2003-06-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-04-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-04-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-01-06 Listed — MRIS
• 2002-12-23 Sold (MLS) $43,000 MRIS
• 2002-10-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-10-21 Listed $43,000 MRIS
• 1999-07-28 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRIS
• 1999-07-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-07-20 Listed $49,500 MRIS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · -34.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.