Evia Plan · Wickenburg, AZ 85390

$369,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · SingleFamily · 650 Days on market

↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, HOA Maintained Front and Rear Yards, Large Kitchen Island , Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, Single Story Design, Den/Office , Split Bedroom Floor Plan , Optional Sliding Glass Door at Primary Bedroom, Spacious, Open Floor Plan , This plan modeled at Trilogy Verde River, Sunstone, and Encanterra, Covered Porch and Patio , Two Car Garage, Optional Barn Door at Office

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Resort community
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• RESORT COMMUNITY
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PORCH AND PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $369,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $420,592.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-802 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.0% in Wickenburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 380 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,664/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 650 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,423 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 650 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $420,592
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3215 Rising Sun Rdg	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,578 (+2%)	3mo	$345,000	$219	83
3285 Maverick Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,570 (+1%)	9mo	$460,000	$293	79
3783 Goldmine Canyon Way	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,709 (+10%)	1mo	$530,000	$310	49
3765 Gold Ridge Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,648 (+6%)	12mo	$417,000	$253	45
3858 Ridge Runner Way	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,732 (+12%)	22mo	$470,000	$271	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-119,186
• Equity at exit: $62,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-169,385
• Equity at exit: $36,365

Cash invested: $117,766 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85390

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,309/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,679

Max offer price $304,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-511	-5% $-657	+0% $-802	+5% $-947	+10% $-1,093
Rent	-10% $-1,012	-5% $-907	+0% $-802	+5% $-697	+10% $-591
Rate	-1.0pp $-590	-0.5pp $-695	base $-802	+0.5pp $-911	+1.0pp $-1,022

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,148
• Closing costs: $12,618
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3710 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	45d	1	0.69mi
3753 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1713	$2,700	$1.58	23d	1	0.70mi
3753 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1713	$3,500	$2.04	0d	1	0.70mi
4002 Desert Moon Dr Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1678	$3,500	$2.09	0d	1	0.77mi
4060 Old Orchard Dr Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	2043	$4,000	$1.96	26d	1	0.83mi
4086 Prairie Schooner Rd Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1542	$3,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.85mi
3904 Goldmine Canyon Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1751	$2,600	$1.48	0d	1	0.87mi
3261 Huckleberry Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1777	$2,000	$1.13	5d	1	1.14mi
3231 Huckleberry Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1751	$3,900	$2.23	21d	1	1.17mi
4345 Cutter Ln Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1578	$2,700	$1.71	25d	1	1.18mi
4345 Cutter Ln Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1578	$3,500	$2.22	13d	1	1.18mi
4295 Sawbuck Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.5	1869	$2,700	$1.44	0d	1	1.26mi
4439 Copper Mine Ct Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1831	$5,900	$3.22	6d	1	1.31mi
4463 Copper Mine Ct Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1839	$6,000	$3.26	23d	1	1.33mi
3106 Prospector Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1691	$2,050	$1.21	3d	1	1.35mi
4331 Greenhorn Way Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	0d	1	1.38mi
4468 Covered Wagon Trl Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1506	$2,250	$1.49	0d	1	1.39mi
4527 Charro Ct Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1624	$2,400	$1.48	0d	1	1.41mi
4540 Jackpot Rd Wickenburg, AZ	2.0	2.0	1669	$2,560	$1.53	0d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,900 Active 650 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 647 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 646 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 645 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 644 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 642 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 641 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,900 Active 638 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 637 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,900 Active 636 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,900 Active 633 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 632 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,900 Active 631 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 630 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 629 DOM
16. 2025-05-03
    price $369,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, HOA Maintained Front and Rear Yards, Large Kitchen Island , Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, Single Story Design, Den/Office , Split Bedroom Floor Plan , Optional Sliding Glass Door at Primary Bedroom, Spacious, Open Floor Plan , This plan modeled at Trilogy Verde River, Sunstone, and Encanterra, Covered Porch and Patio , Two Car Garage, Optional Barn Door at Office

17. 2024-09-09
    listed $437,900 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    55+ & All-Ages Resort Community, HOA Maintained Front and Rear Yards, Large Kitchen Island , Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, Single Story Design, Den/Office , Split Bedroom Floor Plan , Optional Sliding Glass Door at Primary Bedroom, Spacious, Open Floor Plan , This plan modeled at Trilogy Verde River, Sunstone, and Encanterra, Covered Porch and Patio , Two Car Garage, Optional Barn Door at Office

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,560
• − Property taxes: −$6,309
• − Insurance: −$2,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,558
• − Management: −$2,558
• − Depreciation: −$12,235
• Taxable loss: −$17,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wickenburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #7975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wickenburg, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 10,298
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,298
• Household income: $68,591
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.26%
• Current HPI: 314.3169
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $369,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Listed $437,900 Zillow